A clue:

The file /usr/lib/python2.7/dist-
packages/UpdateManager/Core/DistUpgradeFetcherCore.py seems to be where
the decision-making happens.  And it seems to depend in very particular
ways on the contents of /etc/apt/sources.list.  Unfortunately I just
don't know enough about the context to analyze this any further.

It does seem that if /etc/apt/sources.list is not quite in the form that
this program is expecting, the upgrade won't be found.  But I can't tell
just what it's looking for.

if it helps, here's the contents of my /etc/apt/sources.list:

#############################################################
################### OFFICIAL UBUNTU REPOS ###################
#############################################################

###### Ubuntu Main Repos
deb http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ precise main restricted universe 
multiverse
deb-src http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ precise main restricted universe 
multiverse

###### Ubuntu Update Repos
deb http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ precise-security main restricted 
universe multiverse
deb http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ precise-updates main restricted 
universe multiverse
deb http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ precise-backports main restricted 
universe multiverse
deb-src http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ precise-security main restricted 
universe multiverse
deb-src http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ precise-updates main restricted 
universe multiverse
deb-src http://us.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ precise-backports main restricted 
universe multiverse

###### Ubuntu Partner Repo
deb http://archive.canonical.com/ubuntu precise partner
deb-src http://archive.canonical.com/ubuntu precise partner

###### Ubuntu Extras Repo
deb http://extras.ubuntu.com/ubuntu precise main
deb-src http://extras.ubuntu.com/ubuntu precise main

##############################################################
##################### UNOFFICIAL  REPOS ######################
##############################################################

###### 3rd Party Binary Repos

#### Audacity - http://audacity.sourceforge.net/
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys BB901940
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/audacity-team/daily/ubuntu precise main

#### Flacon - http://kde-apps.org/content/show.php?content=113388
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys F2A61FE5
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/flacon/ppa/ubuntu precise main

#### GetDeb - http://www.getdeb.net
## Run this command: wget -q -O- http://archive.getdeb.net/getdeb-archive.key | 
sudo apt-key add -
deb http://archive.getdeb.net/ubuntu precise-getdeb apps

#### Gimp - https://launchpad.net/~otto-kesselgulasch/+archive/gimp
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --recv-keys --keyserver 
keyserver.ubuntu.com 614C4B38
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/otto-kesselgulasch/gimp/ubuntu precise main

#### GNOME3 extra apps - https://launchpad.net/~gnome3-team/+archive/gnome3
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys 3B1510FD
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/gnome3-team/gnome3/ubuntu precise main

#### GNUzilla and IceCat - http://www.gnu.org/software/gnuzilla/
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys 
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/gnuzilla-team/ppa/ubuntu precise main

#### Google Chrome Browser - http://www.google.com/linuxrepositories/
## Run this command: wget -q 
https://dl-ssl.google.com/linux/linux_signing_key.pub -O- | sudo apt-key add -
deb http://dl.google.com/linux/chrome/deb/ stable main

#### Google Earth - http://www.google.com/linuxrepositories/
## Run this command: wget -q 
https://dl-ssl.google.com/linux/linux_signing_key.pub -O- | sudo apt-key add -

#### Google Linux Software Repositories - 
http://www.google.com/linuxrepositories/
## Run this command: wget -q 
https://dl-ssl.google.com/linux/linux_signing_key.pub -O- | sudo apt-key add -
# deb http://dl.google.com/linux/deb/ stable non-free

#### Jupiter - 
http://www.webupd8.org/2010/07/jupiter-ubuntu-ppa-hardware-and-power.html
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys EEA14886
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/webupd8team/jupiter/ubuntu precise main

#### Kubuntu Backports - 
https://edge.launchpad.net/~kubuntu-ppa/+archive/backports
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys 8AC93F7A
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/kubuntu-ppa/backports/ubuntu precise main

#### Kubuntu Updates - https://edge.launchpad.net/~kubuntu-ppa/+archive/ppa
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys 8AC93F7A
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/kubuntu-ppa/ppa/ubuntu precise main

#### LibreOffice - http://www.documentfoundation.org/download/
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys 1378B444
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/libreoffice/ppa/ubuntu precise main

#### Medibuntu - http://www.medibuntu.org/ 
## Run this command: sudo apt-get --quiet update && sudo apt-get --yes --quiet 
--allow-unauthenticated install medibuntu-keyring && sudo apt-get --quiet update
deb http://packages.medibuntu.org/ precise free non-free

#### PlayDeb - http://www.playdeb.net/
## Run this command: wget -O- http://archive.getdeb.net/getdeb-archive.key | 
sudo apt-key add -
deb http://archive.getdeb.net/ubuntu precise-getdeb games

#### qBittorrent - http://qbittorrent.sourceforge.net/
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys 47B4D1C4
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/hydr0g3n/ppa/ubuntu precise main

#### UAlinux - http://ualinux.com/ualinux-repo
## Run this command: wget -q -O- http://archive.ualinux.com/ualinux.key | sudo 
apt-key add -
# deb http://archive.ualinux.com/ubuntu precise main

#### Ubuntu Tweak - http://ubuntu-tweak.com/
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys 0624A220
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/tualatrix/ubuntu precise main

#### UNetbootin - http://unetbootin.sourceforge.net/
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys FC91AE7E
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/gezakovacs/ppa/ubuntu precise main

#### Wine - https://launchpad.net/~ubuntu-wine/+archive/ppa/
## Run this command:  sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys F9CB8DB0
deb http://ppa.launchpad.net/ubuntu-wine/ppa/ubuntu precise main


####### 3rd Party Source Repos

#### Kubuntu Backports (Source) - 
https://edge.launchpad.net/~kubuntu-ppa/+archive/backports
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys 8AC93F7A
deb-src http://ppa.launchpad.net/kubuntu-ppa/backports/ubuntu precise main

#### Kubuntu Updates (Source) - 
https://edge.launchpad.net/~kubuntu-ppa/+archive/ppa
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys 8AC93F7A
deb-src http://ppa.launchpad.net/kubuntu-ppa/ppa/ubuntu precise main

#### Medibuntu (Source) - http://www.medibuntu.org/ 
## Run this command: sudo apt-get --quiet update && sudo apt-get --yes --quiet 
--allow-unauthenticated install medibuntu-keyring && sudo apt-get --quiet update
deb-src http://packages.medibuntu.org/ precise free non-free

#### UNetbootin (Source) - http://unetbootin.sourceforge.net/
## Run this command: sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com 
--recv-keys FC91AE7E
deb-src http://ppa.launchpad.net/gezakovacs/ppa/ubuntu precise main

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1080131

Title:
  update manager doesn't find 12.10 upgrade

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