I've got a similar failure with "do-release-upgrade" on an up-to-date 10.04 
install trying to upgrade to precise; looking at 
/var/log/dist-upgrade/20121227-1750/main_pre_req.log I see:
[...]
2012-12-27 17:50:05,220 DEBUG adding 'deb http://archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/ 
lucid-updates main
' prerequists
2012-12-27 17:50:05,220 DEBUG running doUpdate() (showErrors=False)
2012-12-27 17:50:05,423 DEBUG openCache()
2012-12-27 17:50:07,065 DEBUG /openCache(), new cache size 39742
2012-12-27 17:50:07,069 DEBUG marking 'libapt-pkg4.12' for install
2012-12-27 17:50:07,082 DEBUG marking 'libapt-inst1.4' for install
2012-12-27 17:50:07,094 DEBUG marking 'release-upgrader-python-apt' for install
2012-12-27 17:50:07,105 INFO cache.commit()
2012-12-27 17:50:07,105 DEBUG failed to SystemUnLock() (E:Not locked)
2012-12-27 17:50:07,113 ERROR Exception during pm.DoInstall()
Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "/tmp/tmpi9IMqo/DistUpgradeView.py", line 203, in run
    res = pm.do_install(self.writefd)
SystemError: E:Couldn't configure pre-depend multiarch-support for 
libapt-pkg4.12, probably a dependency cycle.
2012-12-27 17:50:07,213 ERROR installArchives returned 'installArchives() 
failed'
2012-12-27 17:50:07,213 WARNING _fetchArchives for backports returned False

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1002815

Title:
  failed upgrade from 10.04.4 to 12.04

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