Public bug reported:

I have received this error twice when attempting to upgrade from 12.04
to 12.10. When I used the command listed below, the report showed I was
on 11.10. I installed 12.04 from a disk and never installed 11.10. To
the best of my knowledge, this isn't a pre-release version of Linux
12.04, nor have I installed the 12.10 pre-release version. I do have
some Windows software on my computer, but no unofficial Linux Software.

Could not calculate the upgrade

An unresolvable problem occurred while calculating the upgrade:
E:Unable to correct problems, you have held broken packages.

 This can be caused by:
 * Upgrading to a pre-release version of Ubuntu
 * Running the current pre-release version of Ubuntu
 * Unofficial software packages not provided by Ubuntu

If none of this applies, then please report this bug using the command
'ubuntu-bug ubuntu-release-upgrader-core' in a terminal.

ProblemType: Bug
DistroRelease: Ubuntu 12.04
Package: update-manager 1:0.156.14.11
ProcVersionSignature: Ubuntu 3.2.0-38.61-generic-pae 3.2.37
Uname: Linux 3.2.0-38-generic-pae i686
NonfreeKernelModules: fglrx
ApportVersion: 2.0.1-0ubuntu17.1
Architecture: i386
Date: Tue Feb 26 11:00:29 2013
GsettingsChanges:
 com.ubuntu.update-manager first-run false
 com.ubuntu.update-manager launch-time 1361894236
 com.ubuntu.update-manager window-height 518
 com.ubuntu.update-manager window-width 600
InstallationMedia: Ubuntu 11.10 "Oneiric Ocelot" - Release i386 (20111012)
MarkForUpload: True
PackageArchitecture: all
ProcEnviron:
 TERM=xterm
 PATH=(custom, no user)
 LANG=en_US.UTF-8
 SHELL=/bin/bash
SourcePackage: update-manager
Symptom: ubuntu-release-upgrader-core
UpgradeStatus: Upgraded to precise on 2013-02-26 (0 days ago)
VarLogDistupgradeAptclonesystemstate.tar.gz: Error: [Errno 13] Permission 
denied: '/var/log/dist-upgrade/apt-clone_system_state.tar.gz'
VarLogDistupgradeTermlog:

** Affects: update-manager (Ubuntu)
     Importance: Undecided
         Status: New


** Tags: apport-bug dist-upgrade i386 precise running-unity

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1133415

Title:
  "Could not calculate the upgrade" when upgrading to 12.10

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