I had apparently the same problem:
- could not initiate dbus
- unresolvable problem occurred while calculating the upgrade

Side note : I upgraded from 6.10 to 7.04 a few weeks ago and was left
with nfs-common in a strange state, update-manager was saying it needs
update but the checkbox was greyed out.

Anyway, I upgraded nfs-common with synaptic and then update-manager -c
-d started working again.

Hope that helps

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Upgrade to gutsy failed
https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/139878
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