I think that the biggest issue with apt repositories not using https is
that attackers can block updates and censor which packages can be
installed.

Here's a story: Once I was on Amtrak, the train system run by a US
federal government agency, and noticed that the wifi was being censored.
I wanted to try to figure out exactly how it was being censored using
OONI Probe [1], but I didn't have it installed. So I attempted
installing it, but the Amtrak network blocked the download of some of
the dependencies, so I failed in mapping the censorship that trip. I
figured out that the network blocked all http downloads where the
content-length header was greater than 10mb (to prevent bandwidth abuse
or something), but Amtrak wouldn't have prevented me from installing
this if the apt repositories used https.

This is more innocent that other attacks could be. An attacker could
prevent the installation of security updates, or of specific packages
that they didn't want people using, such as enigmail, pidgin-otr,
anarchism, etc.

Fingerprinting installed software is also a big issue. Robie makes a
good point that https won't necessarily prevent that, because of package
file sizes, but I still think transport encryption is the first step to
solving that problem (e.g. then packages could add padding). And using
https would require the attacker to maintain a database of package
versions and file sizes, for all repositories that victims maybe using,
including arbitrary PPAs, rather than just looking for package names and
versions in the URLs.

But also, while it's true that "other things use https" isn't
necessarily a good justification for apt repos to follow suit, I do
think it's past time that we completely stop using plaintext transport
protocols for anything. Even when you're using http to download signed
things (like software packages, or PGP keys from key servers), transport
encryption makes network attacks, both passive and active, much harder
and makes users safer.

[1] https://github.com/thetorproject/ooni-probe

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1464064

Title:
  Ubuntu apt repos are not available via HTTPS

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