Public bug reported:

Installed Ubuntu GNOME 14.04.2, applied all updates, and attempted
upgrade to Xenial using 'update-manager -d -c' and I'm told:

Could not calculate the upgrade

An unresolvable problem occurred while calculating the upgrade.

 This can be caused by:
 * Upgrading to a pre-release version of Ubuntu
 * Running the current pre-release version of Ubuntu
 * Unofficial software packages not provided by Ubuntu

If none of this applies, then please report this bug using the command
'ubuntu-bug ubuntu-release-upgrader-core' in a terminal.

So this is Trusty w/Utopic HWE attempting to upgrade to Xenial.

ProblemType: Bug
DistroRelease: Ubuntu 14.04
Package: ubuntu-release-upgrader-core 1:0.220.8
ProcVersionSignature: Ubuntu 3.16.0-70.90~14.04.1-generic 3.16.7-ckt25
Uname: Linux 3.16.0-70-generic x86_64
ApportVersion: 2.14.1-0ubuntu3.19
Architecture: amd64
CrashDB: ubuntu
CurrentDesktop: GNOME
Date: Tue Apr 19 14:46:37 2016
InstallationDate: Installed on 2016-04-19 (0 days ago)
InstallationMedia: Ubuntu-GNOME 14.04.2 LTS "Trusty Tahr" - Release amd64 
(20150218.1)
PackageArchitecture: all
ProcEnviron:
 TERM=xterm
 PATH=(custom, no user)
 XDG_RUNTIME_DIR=<set>
 LANG=en_US.UTF-8
 SHELL=/bin/bash
SourcePackage: ubuntu-release-upgrader
UpgradeStatus: Upgraded to trusty on 2016-04-19 (0 days ago)
VarLogDistupgradeTermlog:

** Affects: ubuntu-release-upgrader (Ubuntu)
     Importance: Undecided
         Status: New


** Tags: amd64 apport-bug dist-upgrade third-party-packages trusty

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1572298

Title:
  Trusty w/Utopic HWE can't calculate upgrade to Xenial

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