I think part of the issue here is the function
estimate_kernel_size_in_boot, from utils.py, which does the following:

 92 def estimate_kernel_size_in_boot():
 93     """ estimate the amount of space that the current kernel takes in /boot 
"""
 94     size = 0
 95     kver = os.uname()[2]
 96     for f in glob.glob("/boot/*%s*" % kver):
 97         size += os.path.getsize(f)
 98     return size

The glob ends up including vmlinuz and initrd, which is fine but then
DistUpgradeCache.py multiples size by 2.  We actually don't need enough
free space to accomadate for two of every kernel file in boot though.

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1646222

Title:
  calculation of needed free space in /boot is inaccurate and causes
  refusal to upgrade

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