It appears the public key for the precies-security and precise-updates
package isn't available during the update.  Adding it manually with

sudo apt-key adv --keyserver keyserver.ubuntu.com --recv
40976EAF437D05B5

worked for all but one package, java-package, which I simply removed.

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1513232

Title:
  do-release-upgrade no longer works from lucid to precise

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