The reverse bisect indicated the following commit as the fix:

commit 28ee1b746f493b7c62347d714f58fbf4f70df4f0
Author: Florian Westphal <[email protected]>
Date:   Fri Mar 24 19:42:37 2017 +0100

    secure_seq: downgrade to per-host timestamp offsets


However, to apply this commit it required commits 2c956a60778c and 7cd23e5300c1 
as prereqs.  I built a Zesty test kernel with these three commits.  The test 
kernel can be downloaded from:

http://kernel.ubuntu.com/~jsalisbury/lp1686636/patched


Can you see if this kernel resolves the bug?  With this test kernel, you need 
to install both the linux-image and linux-image-extra .deb packages.

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1686636

Title:
  outgoing tcp connections sometimes fail to be established

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