Firefox is not installed, so I think your final point is likely to be
correct.
apt policy firefox
firefox:
Installed: (none)
Candidate: 57.0.1+build2-0ubuntu1
Version table:
57.0.1+build2-0ubuntu1 500
500 http://au.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu bionic/main i386 Packages
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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1754833
Title:
Chromium complains that it's not the default browser when it is the
default according to Gnome Settings
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