A lot of people seem to have similar issues. I think the root cause is that the 
error message is not clear enough about what the actual problem is and what you 
can do to resolve it. The information is out there with sufficient googling but 
it could be more obvious.
Even having fixed the problem I'm not certain what the exact problem was and 
which of the steps I took were required to fix it.

** Summary changed:

- upgrade from Ubuntu 16.04 to 18.04 failed
+ improve diagnostics and advice for "could not determine the upgrade" errors.

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1811203

Title:
  improve diagnostics and advice for "could not determine the upgrade"
  errors.

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