This is by-design for VMs that are pre-provisioned. When a VM goes
through pre-provisioning cloud-init would block on network change
(waiting for media disconnect/connect). When the network change happens
the VM will be configured based on customer's specified configuration.
While I am not intimately familiar with the prediction logic, I believe
the "guessing" (prediction) part isnt depending on any user's particular
usage pattern but rather on the overall demand for the tuple (vm size,
region, image, etc.)

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1880704

Title:
  jump in kernel clock during boot  on azure

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