Public bug reported:

Software Updater offered upgrading to 18.04.5 (I have 16.04.7)

clicking <upgrade> resulted in this warning (all on one line)

W:The repository 'http://au.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu bionic-backports Release' 
does not have a Release file., 
W:Data from such a repository can't be authenticated and is therefore 
potentially dangerous to use., 
W:See apt-secure(8) manpage for repository creation and user configuration 
details., 
E:Failed to fetch 
http://au.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/dists/bionic-backports/main/binary-i386/Packages
  403  Forbidden [IP: 202.158.214.106 80], 
E:Failed to fetch 
http://au.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/dists/bionic-updates/main/dep11/icons-64x64.tar
  403  Forbidden [IP: 202.158.214.106 80], 
E:Failed to fetch 
http://au.archive.ubuntu.com/ubuntu/dists/bionic/universe/dep11/icons-64x64.tar 
 403  Forbidden [IP: 202.158.214.106 80], 
E:Some index files failed to download. They have been ignored, or old ones used 
instead.

ProblemType: Bug
DistroRelease: Ubuntu 16.04
Package: ubuntu-release-upgrader-core 1:16.04.32
ProcVersionSignature: Ubuntu 4.15.0-133.137~16.04.1-generic 4.15.18
Uname: Linux 4.15.0-133-generic x86_64
NonfreeKernelModules: wl
ApportVersion: 2.20.1-0ubuntu2.30
Architecture: amd64
CrashDB: ubuntu
CurrentDesktop: Unity
Date: Sat Feb  6 16:52:09 2021
InstallationDate: Installed on 2018-11-23 (806 days ago)
InstallationMedia: Ubuntu 16.04.3 LTS "Xenial Xerus" - Release amd64 (20170801)
PackageArchitecture: all
SourcePackage: ubuntu-release-upgrader
Symptom: release-upgrade
UpgradeStatus: Upgraded to xenial on 2021-02-06 (0 days ago)
VarLogDistupgradeAptlog:
 Log time: 2021-02-06 16:38:40.673705
 Log time: 2021-02-06 16:38:47.665694
 Log time: 2021-02-06 16:42:39.710816
VarLogDistupgradeTermlog:

** Affects: ubuntu-release-upgrader (Ubuntu)
     Importance: Undecided
         Status: New


** Tags: amd64 apport-bug dist-upgrade xenial

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1914846

Title:
  cannot upgrade from 16.04 to 18.04

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