I found the problem. Documenting here for posterity.
I had a file in /etc/apt/preferences.d/ containing this:
Package: *
Pin: Release v=18.04, -l=Ubuntu
Pin-Priority: 10
I had added this a while ago to upgrade smartmontools to the version
from Bionic, but forgot about it. Removing this (commenting out these 3
lines) made the do-release-upgrade succeed.
** Changed in: ubuntu-release-upgrader (Ubuntu)
Status: New => Invalid
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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1922401
Title:
do-release-upgrade fails because it marks e2fsprogs for removal
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