Public bug reported:

$ lsb_release -rd
Description:    Ubuntu 16.04.7 LTS
Release:        16.04

$ do-release-upgrade

finishes with this:

Checking package manager
Reading package lists... Done    
Building dependency tree          
Reading state information... Done

Calculating the changes

Calculating the changes

Could not calculate the upgrade

An unresolvable problem occurred while calculating the upgrade.

If none of this applies, then please report this bug using the 
command 'ubuntu-bug ubuntu-release-upgrader-core' in a terminal.If 
you want to investigate this yourself the log files in 
'/var/log/dist-upgrade' will contain details about the upgrade. 
Specifically, look at 'main.log' and 'apt.log'. 

Restoring original system state

Aborting
Reading package lists... Done    
Building dependency tree          
Reading state information... Done
=== Command detached from window (Tue Jun 15 13:44:11 2021) ===

ProblemType: Bug
DistroRelease: Ubuntu 16.04
Package: ubuntu-release-upgrader-core 1:16.04.32
ProcVersionSignature: Ubuntu 4.4.0-210.242-generic 4.4.262
Uname: Linux 4.4.0-210-generic x86_64
ApportVersion: 2.20.1-0ubuntu2.30
Architecture: amd64
CrashDB: ubuntu
CurrentDesktop: MATE
Date: Tue Jun 15 13:40:21 2021
PackageArchitecture: all
SourcePackage: ubuntu-release-upgrader
UpgradeStatus: Upgraded to xenial on 2021-06-15 (0 days ago)

** Affects: ubuntu-release-upgrader (Ubuntu)
     Importance: Undecided
         Status: New


** Tags: amd64 apport-bug dist-upgrade third-party-packages xenial

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https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/1932013

Title:
  do-release-upgrade failure

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