ah, here's the reason.  In /etc/apt/preferences, I have (for purposes of
testing out 8.04.1 CD builds):

Package: ssl-cert
Pin: version 1.0.14-0ubuntu2
Pin-Priority: 900

which leads to the following:

$ apt-cache policy ssl-cert
ssl-cert:
  Installed: 1.0.14-0ubuntu2.1
  Candidate: 1.0.14-0ubuntu2
  Package pin: 1.0.14-0ubuntu2
  Version table:
 *** 1.0.14-0ubuntu2.1 900
        500 http://security.ubuntu.com hardy-security/main Packages
        500 http://mirrors.cat.pdx.edu hardy-updates/main Packages
        100 /var/lib/dpkg/status
     1.0.14-0ubuntu2 900
        500 file: hardy/main Packages

And apt-get dist-upgrade will cause this package to be downgraded,
whereas update-manager doesn't act on it.  If I drop the preferences
file, then update-manager is happy again.

** Changed in: update-manager (Ubuntu)
       Status: Incomplete => New

-- 
update-manager always claims one invisible update is available
https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/247130
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