Ok, so I spent a little time hacking on this (I tried to downgrade, added some 
log statements to BackupPC so I could see what was really going on) and realize 
what happened in my case.
1) mount failed for some reason.  Probably before the update occurred.
2) backuppc auto-created /var/lib/backuppc.  Possibly during the update.
3) backuppc failed to create a test hard link in the resulting directory on 
startup.

Resolved by:
1) modifying /etc/backuppc/config.pl to have TopDir point to my drive (probably 
not absolutely necessary, but it will be helpful to me for future ref to 
diagnose this).  
2) re-creating the softlink between /var/lib/backuppc and the drive.  Necessary 
in my situation because it will still try to create a log directory and fail 
(and maybe this is an issue of me configuring this wrong, but that's probably 
off topic).

After fixing my config as above, the problem went away. Yay.  :)  I
guess my issue was in fact unrelated to Ion's problem, and I hope I
didn't distract.  Wish I could delete the post with all those long log
entries.

-- 
package backuppc 3.1.0-4ubuntu1.1 failed to install/upgrade: subprocess 
post-installation script returned error exit status 1
https://bugs.launchpad.net/bugs/445154
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