NEW CRISES EMERGE AS FOREIGN TROOPS WITHDRAW

Initial hopes that the withdrawal of foreign troops from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) in early October would jumpstart the economy now appear cast in doubt. So far, the pullout of troops and the influx of returning refugees have impeded economic revival and may create new problems to the Kinshasa regime. The withdrawal is set to end a four-year war that has involved half a dozen African countries and armed Congolese groups whose power struggles have siphoned off much of the country's vast natural wealth. According to the UN Secretary-General's Representative for Congo, Namanga Ngongi, some 12,000 Rwandan troops, 3,000 Ugandans, 700 Burundians and 2,092 Zimbabweans are leaving the DR Congo. Namibian, Angolan and Chadian troops had earlier withdrawn from the war that threatened the entire Great Lakes region. But there is growing fear that the vacuum created by such withdrawals will stall President Joseph Kabila's economic recovery plans. Although Uganda has entered into some arrangements with authorities in Kinshasa over instability likely to be experienced by their withdrawal along the Uganda-DR Congo borderline, Rwanda, on the other hand, has simply left the issue hanging with threats of a comeback should her security be threatened by events across the border. On the Uganda-DR Congo border, fear of instability could be a cause for concern in the short term. The local Hema and Lendu ethnic groups are pitted against each other, as well as rebel groups such as the Uganda-backed Rassemblement Congolais Pour La Democratie-Kisangani-Mouvement Pour La Liberation (RCD-K-ML). On the border with Rwanda the RCD, Interahamwe and the Mayi Mayi are a cause for concern. According to Vital Kamerhe, Congo's commissioner general in charge of peace in the Great Lakes region, a framework is to be formulated in which both countries could work together to establish peace in Ituri alongside monitoring the Ruwenzori mountain area.

Refugee returnees - In the period preceding military withdrawals, authorities in Rwanda, the DR Congo's neighbouring country with the largest number of DR Congo refugees, were accused by the Unites States Committee for Refugees (USCR) of forcing nearly 10,000 ethnic Tutsi Congolese refugees to return to the DR Congo. In a letter to Rwandan President Paul Kagame, the USCR called on Rwanda to end the forced returns, further urging Rwanda to permit the entry of Congolese seeking safety again in Rwanda. "It appears that the majority of refugees have returned against their will as part of a deliberate campaign carried out by the Rwandan government in violation of international refugee laws", reads the USCR letter to President Kagame. During 1995 and 1996, more than 30,000 Congolese Tutsi refugees fled to Rwanda to escape persecution and violence by former Rwandan Hutu government soldiers and militia operating in Eastern DR Congo. Until the forced repatriation began on August 31, the refugees, unable to return home because of continued warfare and human rights abuses in Eastern DR Congo, had lived peacefully in Rwanda under the protection of UNHCR, and the Rwandan government. Some 17,000 refugees lived in Gihembe camp in northern Rwanda's Byumba region, and 15,000 others lived in Kiziba camp, located in the Kibuye Zone in Western Rwanda. In the aftermath of the forced repatriation, fewer than 9,000 Congolese refugees remain in Gihembe and only some 12,000 remain in Kiziba. Rwanda authorities have, in the meantime, razed sections of Gihembe camp. "Frightened refugees have cited intimidation from local security forces as the primary reason for decamping Gihembe and Kiziba", the USCR letter noted. The refugees, who were forced to return involuntarily, left Rwanda hurriedly with few personal possessions. Many have settled temporarily in the DR Congo village of Kichanga, 50 miles (80 km) north of Goma. Kichanga reportedly lacks adequate food, shelter, water, sanitation, and health facilities. Africa's Great Lakes region is one of the continent's most volatile areas. In less than a decade, civil war, ethnic conflict, and political violence in DR Congo, Burundi, and Rwanda have led to deaths of several million civilians and displaced millions of others, according to estimates. By August this year, USCR estimated that there are nearly 3.5 million refugees and internally displaced persons in the Great Lakes region. These include more than 2 million internally displaced persons in DR Congo, an additional 350,000 Congolese refugees, more than 600,000 internally displaced Burundians, some 350,000 Burundian refugees, and approximately 60,000 Rwandan refugees. Caught in the middle are the 53 million Congolese civilians. After decades of government neglect and war, the country's health system is in a state of complete collapse. An estimated 2.5 million Congolese are displaced inside the country, many of them outside the reach of aid workers.

Donor assistance sought - A donor representatives meeting late last year in Paris, France, observed that the DR Congo government had put in place a credible reform programme, supported by the IMF. The donors resolved to quickly address the country's debt overhang, estimated at about US$12.9 billion. They noted that a number of donor programmes worth about US$280 million were underway in the country and projects amounting to some US$240 million were planned for the coming months. The planned projects would cover a large part of those contained in a US$156 million request by the government. Donors also concurred that foreign assistance will equitably be distributed across the country and a regional approach undertaken in addressing some issues. In addition, transparency will be enhanced particularly in the mining sector among a series of other urgent activities. In December 2001, there was a Technical Update meeting in Brussels aimed at briefing participants on ongoing developments, particularly with regard to debt, disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration, donor co-ordination, implementation, transparency and urgent activities. Grim social indicators - Grounded factories, the blockage of drainage channels by silt, growth of weeds on tarmac roads along city streets, and dilapidated buildings just show how far Kabila's government is from bringing about a semblance of civility. The conflict has led to an increase in the mortality rate, which is estimated at between 1.5 and 3 million deaths since 1997, including about 200,000 persons, mostly civilians, killed in the fighting. The worst damage is said to be on the infrastructure thus paralysing the transport system. Pre-war social indicators show that life expectancy in 1995 was 53 years in the cities and 43 years in the rural areas. Illiteracy stood at 32.7% on overall and 42% among women. The infant mortality rate was placed at 101 children per 1,000 births in the cities, and 161 per 1,000 births in rural areas. WHO estimates that the current HIV/AIDS prevalence rate stands at about 5% (over 2 million people) with large regional disparities. For example it estimates a rate of 4.6% in Kinshasa and 16% in Goma. In Kinshasa alone, 15% of infants less than 5 years of age are HIV positive. In 1999, the Gross Domestic Product was US$3.9 billion (US$78 per capita) against US$10 billion in 1990 (US$250 per capita). Consequently, the rate of inflation in 2000 was estimated to be in excess of 500%. Families stripped of their coping mechanisms are more vulnerable to infectious diseases and malnutrition. Whereas the outbreaks of meningitis, cholera, measles, and malaria are common, the incidences of sleeping sickness, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS are rising rapidly. Hospitals and medical equipment are scarce, with many rural communities totally without health care. A single Congolese doctor typically serves approximately 5,000 people. One in four children dies before attaining the age of five with less than half the population having access to clean drinking water. With these austere conditions, the average life expectancy is only 45 years. An epidemiological survey conducted by Medecin San Frontiers in 2001, found extremely high mortality rates in several areas throughout the country. In Basankusu, an area near the frontline under rebel control, nearly 10% of the total population died over a 12-month period, with the rate rising to almost 25% for children under five years of age.

By Henry Neondo, New People Feature Service

       The Mulindwas communication group
"With Yoweri Museveni, Uganda is in anarchy"

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