May be Bindadi is right? -The Monitor
By David Ouma Balikowa
Uganda has, for decades tagged along with an excess of political baggage. But today, it would appear the baggage is reaching an unbearable weight.There are rumours of war along the country�s western border. And now former presidential candidate Dr. Kizza Besigye has finally come out to say the conditions in Uganda are ripe for war.
In Ugandan political speak, this assertion is as good as a declaration of war.
From available information, it is clear government is not sitting around doing nothing. Lately it has gone on a weapon-buying spree, strengthening the airforce as well. Good precaution, one would say.
Unfortunately, this looming `new war� comes in the face of the 16-year-old insurgency in the north of the country. If the latter has depleted our national coffers, -- and human life too -- one can only guess the devastating consequence of yet another war.
The likely effect of having to handle two wars at the same time has not been lost on President Yoweri Museveni. One gets the impression he has been at pains to quell the northern war and free resources so that he can face this impending war with lesser constraints.--
However, whether he can achieve that end remains to be seen. From what we know, the northern war has proved more stubborn than earlier anticipated.
Uganda�s well-wishers had had a lot of faith in the president�s military credentials, thinking that was all you needed to end the northern war in the shortest time possible. So even when they were irked by over spending on defense, they were willing not to allow that derail their support for the budget.
But now there seems no clear end in sight, one would think the threat of yet another war will jolt the donor community into changing the thinking that has driven their economic support for government.
Facts are sour but no one wants to throw their money into a bottomless hole. The donors have been more than patient and understanding. They have stomached many of our military adventures i! n the re gion in the hope that it would pay off in peace dividends. But now that the country is turning into a permanent slave to wars, they just might reconsider their support.
Like many Ugandans, donors had also hoped that a quick end to war would free the president to address the unanswered political questions such as succession and pluralism.
But the recent calls to give the president a bonus term could be sending mixed signals too. Quite evidently, the calls are not simply from the political wilderness. To some people the calls smack of some plot by the regime in power.
The response is compounding such fears. Calls for a bonus term have not attracted significant rebuttal from the power block as with those for a succession discussion and opening up of political space to the political parties.
The looming wars could have some influence on the above debate depending on how the players on the opposite sides chose to respond.
For a start, tolerating calls for a bonus term for the president while suppressing those igniting the succession and pluralism debate is good excuse for those behind the looming war. Ordinarily, all rebels seize on the latter two as reasons for waging war.
Government should respond by pulling the rug below potential rebels. Encouraging the succession debate, embracing Minister of Local Government Bidandi Ssali�s suggestion of turning the Movement into a political party, and then leveling the political ground is one way of doing this.
In doing so, government would be synchcronising Uganda�s political system with its neighbours in the East African Community (EAC).
Take Kenya for example. The political scene is not only vibrant; it is turning out to be the envy in the region. One gets the feeling that what the wars have failed to achieve in Uganda, political tolerance is delivering in Kenya.
If the events in Kenya result in a peaceful transition, Uganda�s image in the region would be diminished. Kenya�s model of openness and tolerance would be viewed by the donors as ! a beacon of hope in East and Central Africa. Donor money as well as foreign investors, who have been trickling into Uganda from Kenya, would quickly head back.
Kenya�s experience has other lessons beyond the necessity to avoid wars. And this is where Bidandi�s insistence on discussing the succession is timely.
After Kenya�s President Daniel arap Moi was elected to his last constitutional term in 1997, he ducked the succession debate as Museveni is currently doing. By the time he woke up to do it, it was a bit too late. His ruling party has been torn to pieces and is poised to lose an election.
So unless a president has ambitions for a �bonus� term beyond what the law entitles him or her to, putting off the succession debate until the election year could turn out to be a disaster -as Moi has belatedly learnt.
December 12, 2002 23:55:07
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