But after 24 years of almost absolute power, President Daniel arap Moi is about to be shunted aside in a closely-fought general election marking, if all goes well, the very first democratic transfer of power in Kenyan history.
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Polls put Kibaki ahead of his rivals |
But the former headmaster, one of Africa's last so-called "Big Men" seems resolute.
As for the election campaign, it has mirrored the country that the shrewd, ruthless Moi has done so much to shape over the past quarter of a century - energetic, outspoken, tribal, corrupt, and sometimes violent.
Smooth transition?
Above all, the campaign has been characterised by an overwhelming desire for change, a popular thirst for an end to the corruption and inertia which has slowly strangled this vibrant, spectacular country and left well over half the population in deep poverty.
President Moi, aware perhaps that his place in history will largely be determined by what happens over the next few days, has promised a "smooth" transition.
Despite scattered incidents of violence, there is reason to hope that this election will be substantially freer and fairer than Kenya's first two multi-party polls in 1992 and 1997.
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Moi succeeded Jomo Kenyatta in 1978 |
But uncertainty still hangs over the process in the form of a simply, worrying question: Would either side accept defeat?
In the past, a fragmented opposition has never been able to offer a coherent challenge to the ruling Kanu party.
But this time all the opinion polls suggest that Narc, a recent, haphazard alliance of opposition parties promising an end to corruption and sweeping constitutional reforms, should win the presidency, and a majority in parliament.
Kanu's presidential candidate, 42-year-old Uhuru Kenyatta, has publicly committed himself to honouring the result, whoever wins.
Opposition lead
So has his main rival, Narc's Mwai Kibaki.
But Raila Odinga, the populist mastermind behind Narc, has declared that the only conceivable way Kanu can win is by cheating.
He has publicly threatened to storm State House and seize power by force if that happens.
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The Commonwealth, the African Union and the EU have sent observers |
A genuine threat, or election rhetoric? With luck Kenya will never have to find out.
Although Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of Kenya's first post-independence leader Jomo Kenyatta, has campaigned hard and may well peak at the right time, few observers believe he can overturn such a huge opposition lead and win the presidency.
Uhuru appears to be businesslike and articulate, but he has one big image problem - President Moi.
Corrupt elite
Earlier this year, Uhuru was plucked from relative obscurity and simply installed by Moi as his chosen successor.
It was made very clear to others in the ruling party that no rival nominee would be tolerated by the leadership.
Moi famously said that Uhuru was someone "who could be guided", a comment which led many to believe that the retiring president wanted to install a weak puppet who would protect the interests of Moi and a corrupt elite.
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Ballot papers have been sent to polling stations |
Uhuru has done much to distance himself from his mentor, promising to clean up Kanu, and presenting himself as a "fresh face" untainted by power.
He has pointed out that Narc is full of recent defectors from Kanu and is led by the "old generation" in the form of 72-year-old former Vice President Mwai Kibaki.
Many observers believed that Kibaki's opposition alliance would never hold together long enough to challenge Kanu.
But two election defeats have instilled a sense of discipline in much of the opposition, and although two prominent figures are now running for the presidency in their own right, Kibaki has managed to keep Narc focused and united.
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