Sent: Thursday, January 23, 2003 5:28 AM
Subject: [anarchy_africa] Iraq - is the conflict essentially about oil?

Hi all

What do folks here think about the counter-argument to the thesis
that the coming war with Iraq is essentially about oil. We in the
World in Common group are putting together a leaflet on the subject
so I would be intrerested in any reponses.

Hamish McRae put forward this counter-argument in the Independent on
Sunday (19 January). According to him, in the short term what happens
to Iraq's oil is not very important. Yes, it has the second largest
reserves of oil after Saudi Arabia but actually produces relatively
little - somewhat less than the UK's output. Not only that, as oil
supplies become tighter in the long term , the developed economies
are likely to increasingly turn to natural gas - which is where
Russia with its huge reserves of natural gas is likely to become an
even more important player in the energy field than Saudi Arabia.

Other counter-arguments against the war-over-oil thesis is that it
overlooks the potentially enormous cost implications of a war which
could push the world into a global recession - not to mention the
possible wholesale destruction of much of the oil industry in Iraq.
Hence, an unduly "economistic" argument that war is in the interest
of western capitalists does not hold much water. It is also argued
that Western economies are more concerned about the availability of
oil upon which they are so dependent; western firms taking over oil
production in Iraq is not an economic neccesity providing the flow of
oil in the right direction - and at the right price - can be ensured

I would be grateful for any comments on this matter

Regards


Robin
World in Common group
FORUM:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/worldincommon/
WEBSITE (temporary):http://www.angelfire.com/folk/wic/




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