Monday, May 26, 2003
FRANK NABWISO
Using Zambia's Tactics, Can M-7 be Forced Out?
Tembo, a retired army general, is the man who spearheaded the rejection of a third term for President Frederick Chiluba after the expiry of his two-term period from 1991 to 2001. Bidandi Ssali, who has been a politician since 1961, is becoming the chief spokesman of many Ugandans, who oppose Museveni extending his rule beyond 2006.
At the time of its independence in 1964, Zambia had only six million people and little highly trained manpower. It had less than 1,000 people with "O" level certificate and less than 100 university graduates.
Kaunda's monumental contribution to Zambia included acceleration of university education and turning Zambians into liberal-minded persons with a strong dose of pan-Africanism.
Another unique factor is Zambia's big number of urban dwellers. Besides Lusaka, the capital city, there are six major towns on the Zambian copperbelt, ie Ndola, Luanshya, Chingola, Kitwe, Mufulira and Chilababombune.
These mining towns have always played a determinant role in Zambian politics. Kaunda himself graduated into a skilled political organiser on the copperbelt, and Chiluba was for a long time in charge of the Zambian Confederation of Trade Unions.
Some analysts of Zambian politics now argue that it is the liberal-mindedness of the Zambian people in politics, plus the large number of urban dwellers, that contributed to the transformation of the country into a multiparty state in 1991.
It is further argued that after Zambians had liberated themselves from Kaunda's one-party politics and other dictatorial tendencies, they could not allow Chiluba to go the same direction.
However, a lot of credit should be given to Tembo for coming out so courageously to oppose Chiluba. Such courage is not common in Africa, especially when it involves one knowing that he or she will lose a vice-presidential job, as Tembo did, or a ministerial one in the case of Bidandi Ssali.
Unlike Zambia, however, Uganda started well at independence in 1962. Uganda's economy was strong and it had a well-developed civil service, trained by British colonialists. In addition, Uganda had a big number of intellectuals, thanks to the presence of Makerere University, which had evolved from a technical school established in 1922.
But Uganda did not get a strong dose of pan-Africanism during the Obote I regime in 1962-71. Instead, the ugly face of tribalism persisted. And when Idi Amin replaced Obote in 1971 through a military coup d'etat, the Ugandan economy collapsed altogether.
Even the Obote II regime from 1980 to 1985 failed to improve the economy and to sweep its political arena. Indeed, it could not settle down in the saddles of power, because Yoweri Museveni's National Resistance Movement had already launched its guerrilla war.
And up to now, Uganda has not yet stabilised. Since 1986, the Museveni government has been fighting all sorts of rebel groups which have been springing from time to time, including the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in northern Uganda led by Joseph Kony.
Lastly, Uganda is predominantly a rural state. The majority of Ugandans (over 80 per cent) are peasant farmers, most of them women. These are the people that one has to transform before there can be revolutionary changes. These are also the people that Museveni has been focussing on in his campaigns to retain political power.
In brief, therefore, the socio-economic and political terrain in Uganda is not similar to that of Zambia. And that is where Bidandi Ssali's problems arise.
The Museveni era has increased tribalism and sectarianism in the country, so it is still difficult for genuine nationalists to emerge and be listened to. Moreover, Museveni is still the blue-eyed boy of the IMF, World Bank, the Western countries in general, and pseudo-investors. They want him to remain in power so that they can exploit Uganda more. Additionally, both Ugandan intellectuals and the middle class are too fragile to cause serious political changes. Many parliamentarians do not see their role as being to ensure accountability of the government to the people. Instead, they see their role as being to support whatever Museveni's government says.
It is only Museveni and the army who can cause significant changes in the politics of Uganda. But this might not be possible because of Museveni's control over the army and his ethnic connections with the top soldiers.
It is difficult to see how Bidandi Ssali will win such a difficult war. But as some people say, politics is a game of many possibilities and anything can happen in Africa.
Dr Frank Nabwiso is a Member of Parliament for Kagoma constituency
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