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--- Begin Message ---From The Monitor, June 8, 2003Museveni's third term bid is a powder keg?
By Andrew M. Mwenda
Posted June 8 - 13, 2003
Ex-Zambian president Fredrick Chiluba told President Yoweri Mr Museveni and Mr Eriya Kategaya [in Algiers] that any African leader who does not respect term limits on the presidency is "hopeless." Three months later, Mr Kategaya and Mr Museveni met at the height of the third term debate in Zambia. Mr Kategaya asked Mr Museveni what the president thought of Mr Chiluba given the Algiers discussion and Mr Museveni answered "he is not serious", writes By Andrew M. Mwenda
-------------------------------------------------Over the years, President Yoweri Museveni has fought - and even won - many battles. However, his intention to amend the constitution to remove term limits on the presidency, otherwise called the "third term" is going to be a different cup of tea. This single issue stands to significantly dent his reputation and achievements, and it also holds the future of the country in a precarious balance. It will not matter whether President Museveni finally gets or fails to get his much coveted third term; his mere attempt has put him in a dangerous political spot.
The sacking of his childhood friend and compatriot in arms for half a century, former first deputy prime minister and minister of Internal Affairs, Mr Eriya Kategaya, shows that when it comes to his love (or is it greed?) for power, Mr Museveni has no friends.
While Mr Museveni had said he wants a debate on the third term, the sacking of only those ministers who were opposed to the third term left no doubt that the president is determined to cling unto power - at all costs. But will he?
The many battles Mr Museveni has fought and won in Uganda, be they on economic policy reform, politics and in the military have misled him to think that he will always be victorious. Apparently, Mr Museveni is taking the nation too much for granted. Mr Kategaya exercises exemplary personal discipline of any politician I know in Uganda today, the others being Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu, Mr Augustine Ruzindana, Mr Bidandi Ssali and Mr Mathew Rukikaire. These are politicians you would call "steady hands". They will not speak unless they have fully thought about and digested the implications or consequences of their words.
Thus when I heard what Mr Bidandi, Mr Muntu and Mr Rukikaire told the president in Kyankwanzi on the third term, read that Ruzindana was chairing meetings of Members of Parliament opposed to the third term project, and when I read Mr Kategaya's press interview, I knew that something is now amiss with the president. If Mr Museveni has signals to read, the position of Uganda Joint Christian Council, an umbrella organisation of the leading Christian churches in Uganda on the third term should be the last remainder. Never in the history of Uganda has an issue united opposition and ruling party politicians, church and mosque clerics, traditional and civil society leaders, etc than the anti-third term campaign.
Why has the third term debate almost drowned other issues on our nation's political agenda? Mr Museveni says third term is not an important issue precisely because he is shy about his stand, and unwilling to directly confront debate. Mr Bidandi says the real issues are how to control electoral violence, manage a transition from a movement (read one party) system to multi party system, etc and not the third term.
Mr Bidandi is naïve.
Indeed, Mr Museveni, Mr Bidandi and all others who think so should pause and think about public concern.
Why are Ugandans so agitated about the third term? If we accept that people know what they want and are all capable of making good choice about their interest, then we must accept their verdict through the choice of information they want to consume. No headline in our newspapers today sells more than one with the third term on it. No talk-show on radio attracts more ratings and callers than a debate on the third term.
The idea of the term limit is born of our own history: the country has had eight changes of government seven of which have been violent, while the eighth was marked by massive street protests that forced the army to fire at the crowds.
From that history, no amount of economic growth figures, no number of factories, schools, hospitals a president will build, no record of kilometres of tarmac a government will construct will give Uganda an enduring legacy of political stability and maturity than a peaceful hand over of power by one president to another.
Those who see successful government in economic growth figures miss the point of what builds nations. The foundation of any country is its political culture inherited from the symbols of power its nation builders constructed. In the specific case of Uganda, political succession by presidents is the single most important matter today, and we shall stand or fall by it.
As the storms gather on the third term controversy, my heart bleeds for President Museveni. Politics everywhere, but specifically here in Africa, is a game of high stakes, and equally high risks for those who play it. President Museveni and the Movement have done a lot for Uganda; reconstructing an almost collapsed state, rebuilding a shattered economy, restoring political sanity and recasting Uganda's international image from a pariah state to a nation with a proud people.
Yet behind these achievements, there have been many wrongs done: theft of government monies, massacres by the army, torture of opponents by security services and recently, the plunder of Congolese resources.
President Museveni's place in history -- i.e. his legacy thus stands precariously on how best he manages political transition in Uganda. If he respects the constitution, hands over power peacefully and retires, there will be less ado over his excesses. Should he fiddle with the constitution and generate a political stand-off with friends, churches, etc, he will have opened doors for further scrutiny of his record in office.
Political judgement is the worst trial one can go through. All his achievements can be pushed under the carpet and history will record him as a villain if he fails to manage his exit from power honourably.
A week a go, I received a three page hand written letter from former president of Zambia, Frederick Chiluba, thanking me for my messages of support to him in his current woes where the current government has put him under criminal prosecution. I have appeared as a panellist on international radio and television networks where I have defended Mr Chiluba, arguing that the Zambian authorities need to respect the former president, regardless of his mistakes, as a foundation for a stable nation. Mr Chiluba's letter was to thank me for this support.
However, Mr Chiluba's letter touches the heart, and it has made me think deeply about President Museveni. Had Mr Chiluba not tried to amend the constitution to get a third term, a struggle he started and actually lost, he would never have divided his party, so that key pillars in it join the opposition.
By chasing key party leaders from the Movement for Multi-party Democracy, Mr Chiluba had dug the grave for his legacy so much so that even though his proxy, Levi Mwanawasa, won the election as president, the former president could not escape the effects of the way he handled that debate, and now is in the dock.
Reliable sources say that Mr Kategaya and Mr Museveni met Mr Chiluba in Algiers, the capital of Algeria some time in 2001. In a conversation about the constitutional changes in Namibia, where President Sam Nujoma had gotten himself a third term, Mr Chiluba told Mr Museveni and Mr Kategaya that any African leader who does not respect term limits on the presidency is "hopeless." Three months later, Mr Kategaya and Mr Museveni met at State House Nakasero when the third term debate in Zambia was in full swing, and Mr Chiluba was dismissing every minister who opposed it. Mr Kategaya asked Mr Museveni what the president thought of Mr Chiluba given the Algiers discussion and Mr Museveni answered "he is not serious!"
Mr Museveni is walking exactly this same path. Do politicians ever learn?
A born again Christian, Mr Chiluba led the struggle for democratic change in Zambia, and Africa, and instantly became a hero of many across the continent. In office, he reformed the economy, released political prisoners, etc but also, like all leaders, made mistakes. Today Mr Chiluba is facing criminal prosecution not because he has no positive achievements to his credit, not because he is worse than former President Daniel arap Moi of Kenya, but because he misjudged the national mood on term limits on the presidency.Thus, Mr Museveni's tragedy - if it comes to that - will not be a tragedy of excess but of contradiction. That a president who did so much for the country failed to read the political temperature correctly and got sucked into a battle he would lose by both heads and tails is a tragic story indeed.
Signs are that if Mr Museveni locks horns with Mr Bidandi, Mr Kategaya, Mr Ruzindana, Mr Rukikaire, Ms Miria Matembe, Mr Amanya Mr Mushega, Mr Muntu, Mr John Kazoora and all his colleagues of old, plus the churches, the historical opposition and civil society for a third term, he will most likely lose. If that happens, he will retire into ignominy.
Yet the president can still pull off something and get the third term, but it will be a pyrrhic victory, a victory achieved at a very high cost. And what will that cost be?
The president will need to expand his patronage i.e. the number of agents he must put on the state payroll - as campaign agents, political spies, hangers on, etc - that he will swell the already overstretched public expenditure budget to intolerable levels. The donors may be forced to impose discipline, and withhold aid. The economy will slump and some programmes be suspended since Uganda depends on them [donors] for 53 percent of her budget.
This economic downturn will turn more against the president, as his political spies will feed him with lies because their success will depend on exploiting the president's paranoia. Seeing enemies everywhere, Mr Museveni will have to increase repression to hold things together, a factor that will further alienate him from more constituencies, this time even his international friends like the British and Americans.
These developments are inevitable if Mr Museveni wins a third term and their political effect will be to damage him politically and grievously so, that he will be completely unable to influence post 2011 Uganda.
By surrendering this to his opponents, he may not insure himself against criminal prosecution when he leaves power. Apparently, even if he wins a third term, Mr Museveni will lose his place in history and his insurance against criminal prosecution after he leaves power. Mr Moi of Kenya saw it coming, and rather than be pushed, he jumped and thereby bought his insurance.
Will Mr Museveni follow Mr Moi or Mr Chiluba?
All signs are that he is walking Mr Chiluba's path and he will therefore face Mr Chiluba's fate. But he still has time to walk Mr Moi's path and enjoy Mr Moi's fortune.
© 2003 The Monitor Publications
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