On The Mark
By Alan Tacca
Museveni, Kabila and endless wars August 10, 2003
Last Sunday a convoy of commercial barges completed its month-long voyage from
Kinshasa to the northeastern city of Kisangani, delivering goods worth US$10 million to a
population whose link with the Congolese capital had been virtually severed by five
years of war.
The UN mission, MONUC, and a business federation jointly organized the delivery.
With the huge country's interior generally accessible by river or air - thanks to decades
of decay and negligible investment in road infrastructure - the return of big commercial
activity on the river represents a hope that peace may finally dawn on the Congo.
Further east, the French-led European Union force, "Artemis", has brought a semblance
of sanity to Bunia. Although as I write these notes (Tuesday) reports of ethnic-related
violence in areas outside Bunia are coming in.
There is a perception that the scale of the mayhem may reduce if Uganda and Rwanda
could be persuaded to stop fuelling the conflict.
Rwanda, of course, is about to stage a fraudulent general election, which Maj. Gen. Paul
Kagame will probably "win". Partly because of Rwanda's tiny size and partly because so
many of those associated with the old regime took refuge in the Congo, Kagame can
hardly turn in his nightmares without screaming about the Congo.
The election will not change this.
Kagame is not about to accept that Rwanda's most fundamental problems are in fact
internal, and that the best long-term shot is a gamble at genuine democracy. So he will
probably continue manipulating the situation at home and retain the Congo as a useful
scapegoat.
On the other hand, perhaps more nervous about the possibility of prosecution of some
of his military officers by the International Criminal Court, the Kony plague and the 2006
presidential term project demanding his attention, Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni
may be more cautious about his future role in the Congo.
President Joseph Kabila of the DRC may not be smiling yet. But he is watching. Although
he is the youngest in the triangle of adversaries, he has demonstrated that he may be
the calmest and most accomplished statesman of the lot.
In various interviews with international journalists, he comes across as the most
coherent and the most diplomatic.
You will not catch Kabila swearing to "kill" enemies of the Congo or of his regime. You
are more likely to hear him make a passionate plea for the freedom and unity of the
Congolese people through peaceful means.
He is also "lucky" that the record of his adversaries in eastern Congo has been so
appalling that any transgression by his own army and its armed proxies pales in
comparison.
Only two years ago, many watchers were openly peddling one of the aggressors'
undeclared contingency plans: partitioning his country.
Others were reading great strategic insight into Museveni's policy of supporting -
perhaps even inventing - several Congolese rebel groups at once.
(The toughest group would eventually eat Kabila or firmly hold him hostage, so the
argument went.)
Well, in time, old Darwin has refused to be vindicated so simplistically. Instead of leaving
behind a disciplined all-conquering Congolese band shining at least with a pretence to
some revolutionary idea, Uganda has left a legacy of plunder and anarchy in eastern
Congo.
Above all, although Kabila may be a hostage, inch by inch - and more by patience and
negotiation than through military supremacy - he is reclaiming the Congo.
In contrast, President Museveni is acting like a leader who has lost contact with the
imagination of his people, especially their desire for peace and a more genuine brand of
democracy.
Unfortunately for him, his political dance is inextricably tied up with the unending war in
the north, which has now spread to the east.
Even if, as some claim, Museveni's regime found in Mr Joseph Kony's Lord's Resistance
Army a grotesque asset, exhibiting the stereotyped northern "mentality", attracting
Western sympathy vis a vis the Sudan, and graft by senior officers, the rebellion is now
decidedly a serious liability.
If events on the battlefield could be accurately choreographed, Kony should have been
defeated just before the debate on the extension of Museveni's presidential life was on
the table.
As it is now, and like any "evil spirit" would do, Kony has persisted beyond his book
value and caused a kind of desperation.
It is possible to argue that this situation has created opportunities for operators like
those associated with the Arrow Group to improve their political investment.
But this probably presupposes that the president can control any condition of chaos,
and that his overall credibility will remain fairly constant.
That assumption did not work in eastern Congo.
Moreover, it would be surprising if the UPDF military machine allowed free-lance
adventurers to steal the show in the war against Kony.
Ultimately, if the UPDF cannot defeat Kony, it would leave the image of the force less
tattered if the scouts also went home empty-handed.
Yet, after the north, if masses of people in the east continue in their back and forth
panic-driven motion, the despair and sheer exhaustion of the people may feed more into
the perception - local and international - that the president is a very damaged saviour.
And mankind has a tendency of finding a Joseph to deliver the cross for damaged
messiahs.
© 2003 The Monitor Publications
Mitayo Potosi
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