Sunday, September 28, 2003
What we should read in
Uncle Moody's appointment By MUTAHI NGUNYI
The appointment of Mr Moody Awori as the Vice-President is both good and bad. It is good because it is not bad. And it is bad because it does nothing for Kenya. In my view it does not take us forward, and it does not take us backwards. It is a �cease-fire� move aimed at maintaining the status quo. For the next few weeks, therefore, this appointment should act like a painkiller.
The country will experience great relief, but once the dosage is over, we will be where we were a few months ago. This is so because the appointment does not deal with the polarity within Narc and the Cabinet. In fact, it will only complicates the stalemate. In my view, therefore, this appointment is not about �Uncle Moody�. It is about President Kibaki. Let us consider three fundamental things about the President from this move.
One, this man speaks with a small voice, but carries a big stick. Although he comes across as a shy man, he is capable of being ruthless. In my view, this is a virtue. This is so because according to Napoleon Bonaparte, "�to have ultimate victory, one must be ruthless". However, one must temper the ruthlessness with a streak of charm. This is why Napoleon goes further to state that "�a good King must wear a velvet glove behind his iron fist".
President Kibaki cannot be said to be a ruthless man yet. However, his firmness of purpose on certain issues tends to lack in grace. For instance, the appointment of �Uncle Moody� goes against the letter and spirit of the MoU. The message he is sending to the Narc parties here is that to him, this document is redundant. By extension, therefore, he is also serving notice to the LDP brigade to forget about the MoU. In my view, junking the MoU is all right. But the President should wear a velvet glove as he does it.
Two, in spite of his shyness, President Kibaki seems to understand a fundamental principle of seduction. He knows that: "if you want a girl, you should court her sister!" To get Mr Raila Odinga on his side, therefore, what the President has done is to court his LDP �sister�, Mr Awori. As a principle in politics, this works all the time.
When the US wanted to force the Soviet Union into a nuclear deterrence pact, Henry Kissinger decided to ignore the Soviet Union and court China instead. This infuriated, but also scared the Soviets. Almost at zero-option, the Soviets were pushed to the negotiating table. By courting �Uncle Moody� therefore, the President could be pushing Mr Odinga to negotiate. The question, however, is: Will Mr Odinga settle for anything less than the position of an executive prime minister? And on this question, I would want to quote a verse from the Holy Bible for Mr Odinga�s consideration.
This was written by King Solomon who was one of the foremost politicians in history, also known for his wisdom. He says that " �all that happens, has happened before and all that will be, has already been. That is why everything on earth has its own time and season. There is a time for keeping and giving, a time for throwing stones and gathering stones, destroying and building, a time for love and hate, for peace and war". For Mr Odinga, I want to submit that this is not the time to fight. This is the time to regroup and to bide his time.
I am compelled by two reasons here. First, he is the object of aggression from those close to the President, taking a retreat will disorient them. Because he is the �wax� that unifies them, in his absence, they will fall apart. And without a �hate object� they are likely to turn against one another. Second, if, indeed, the President is reaching out to him by appointing "Uncle Moody�, Mr Odinga should accept the olive branch. This is so because if he decides to go for the job of executive prime minister, he will not win. He should therefore accept to take a step backwards in order to take two forward. This kind of sacrifice is what will win him votes should he decide to run in 2007.
Let us consider the third trait of President Kibaki as shown by the appointment of �Uncle Moody�. This man is evolving in his new position as president. And one obvious thing is that he is perfecting the �art of selfishness�. Like ruthlessness, this is another virtue in politics. Regarding the appointment, I am persuaded that it is about insulating the presidency and consolidating his regime. And this is why the Luhya peasants look foolish when they dance to the �mwanamberi� tune in celebration. They should realise that this appointment is not about them or their son. The president did this for himself. I need to elaborate this.
Uncle Moody cannot be President Kibaki�s successor by virtue of age. This means that of all the �pretenders to the throne� no one has a head start. Everyone from Prof George Saitoti to Mrs Charity Ngilu, Dr Mukhisa Kituyi to Mr Odinga has an equal chance to become President Kibaki�s successor. But there could be another clever plot here. The appointment of �Uncle Moody� could mean that no one will be groomed to become an alternative to the President. I could be wrong in this hypothesis, but the question we should ask is this: is it probable?
This being the last Sunday of September, we should give the Government its monthly report card. As usual, we need to distinguish between effort and achievement in awarding the grades. In my view, I give the President an "A" for effort in appointing Mr Awori his Vice-President. However, I give him a "B" for achievement in this appointment. And this is so because he acted �sub-optimally� by choosing the path of least resistance. The President could have given us a bolder move: one that would have settled the wrangles within Narc once and for all.
Regarding performance, I get the sneaky feeling that these people have no plan. But this does not worry me because former President Daniel Moi operated without one for 24 years. Mr Karisa Maitha confirmed my hypothesis this week when he alleged that nothing has changed in this country. In the view of this minister, the only new thing in government is the Cabinet. Everything else is as Mr Moi left it. Regarding change, therefore, I would give the Government a "D" for effort and a "D plus" for achievement.
Mr Ngunyi is a political scientist with ConsultAfrika, a research and consulting firm. Comments\Views about this article |
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