Monday, November 3, 2003
CHARLES ONYANGO-OBBO
A 'Sad' Term for M-7? Not a Happy Thought
Museveni said last week in a lengthy newspaper article published in the two main Ugandan dailies that he wouldn�t hang on to power beyond 2006. But, significantly, he added a rider � if his "services are not needed anymore". Therefore, should "enough" Ugandans still need his services, he will stay.
The president�s latest statement came on the heels of another that raised eyebrows just over three weeks ago. Meeting with a delegation from the East African Law Society in Kampala, Museveni told the lawyers that if those campaigning against his alleged attempts to hold on to power after 2006 didn�t stop it, he "could change [his] mind and stay".
In common, both remarks put a condition on the president�s departure. Indeed, good political sources say that the ruling Movement recently called in the Speaker of Parliament, Edward Sekandi, and requested him to investigate loopholes in the constitution that would allow the vote on the constitutional amendment to be by show of hands or queuing; anything but the secret ballot. This is to pre-empt certain defeat of the no-term-limit amendment in a secret vote.
While Ugandans continue to debate the third term (or as they call it "sad term") project, noticeably absent is a conversation about the risk of the president even making ambiguous statements on the issue.
To begin with, the political grapevine is full of alarming stories that the "sad term", when passed, could trigger one of the biggest armed rebellions the country has ever witnessed.
Perhaps aware of the risks, the Movement is schmoozing with its old foes, the political parties, in all-party talks about the future. Locked out of power and state patronage for 17 years, the ageing party leaders have indicated that they�re agreeable to lifting the term limits, in exchange for a piece of the political cake.
That is where most of the risks lie. The fact is that the very ambiguity of the president�s statements about his future plans has raised very high expectations that the democratisation process won�t be seriously reversed. And should the constitutional change be handled in such a way as to make it look like a swindle, it will only serve to radicalise the country, and play into the hands of the more militant opposition.
It is also the last chance the president and the Movement have to honour at least one major political promise and thus reclaim the moral high ground. When the Movement took over, it promised multiparty elections in 1990. It didn�t happen; instead, that was the year work began on the new constitution that would outlaw free party activities.
Museveni spoke, again ambiguously, about not being interested in running for president in 1996. He did so rather energetically. Some months after his 1996 victory, he said he would retire from politics in four or so years. He didn�t, and got embroiled in the ugliest election in Uganda in March 2001.
At his swearing in ceremony in 1996, attended by a record one million plus supporters, Museveni promised that he was hanging up his lieutenant general�s uniform, and would only wear a civilian tunic from then on.
However, between 1996 and 2001, Museveni donned his military uniform, and spent a longer time camped in the countryside overseeing military operations against rebels who continued to sow destruction, than he had done between 1991 and 1996.
Just as Tanzanians are magnanimous with leaders who step down from power, and many Kenyans reflexively treat former president Daniel arap Moi with a little more dignity now than in the few weeks after his party was defeated in last year�s election, Ugandans too are quite forgiving. If Museveni turns his latest vague promise into a reality, he night yet ride off to retirement on his cattle farm in a blaze of glory.
Charles Onyango-Obbo is managing editor in charge of media convergence at the Nation Media Group.
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