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Saddam Succeeded The
Day He
Survived
By
M.J. Akbar
Special to Gulf News
12-27-03
- The safest place for Saddam Hussain after his defeat,
and certainly one more comfortable than a "rat-hole", is a prison. A
grave might have been safe, but not as comfortable. Saddam was reduced
to a hunted and lonely existence.
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- The idea that he was commanding a fine-tuned
resistance is a myth put out to explain the high casualties Americans
have suffered since Bush thought his mission was accomplished. The
resistance is a shadow army. It is a network of cells held together by
conviction. Those who commit their lives in suicide missions do so for
motives more substantial than Saddam.
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- Although Saddam was arrested on December 13, the story
was missed by the Sunday papers because Washington held on to the news.
Britain's Sunday Times did not have Saddam, but a pretty good
alternative on December 14: an interview with Saddam's second wife,
Samira Shahbandar. She said she last saw Saddam at the Syrian border
when she crossed with her son, Ali. Saddam, she said, was in regular
touch with her, and either called her or wrote to her at least once a
week.
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- The most elementary fact about modern
telecommunications is that the location of any call can be traced. So it
was known where she was. The best intelligence in the Arab world is
Egyptian; it is highly unlikely they were unaware of Samira's
whereabouts. It would be equally unlikely the CIA would not have got
such information. If the Sunday Times could locate Samira, surely the
CIA could do so. Common sense dictates that the surest way to Saddam is
through his family.
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- The question is: what to do with Saddam? It would make
eminent sense to keep him under surveillance to trace through him all
those who were in touch with him. This would be vital intelligence if
Saddam did control a network of 'fedayeen'.
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- The manner in which Saddam was picked up by a
detachment of 600 troops indicates that those who gave the order for the
mission knew exactly who the target was, and where the target was
located.
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- The decision to arrest Saddam was taken when his use
as a trapped prisoner was over; and his use as a "coward" could begin.
The decision might have also been prompted by fears that someone else in
the know (Mossad? The Iran intelligence agency?) was ready to leak the
story.
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- Saddam could not have expected to survive capture,
particularly after the way his sons, Uday and Qusay, were killed in
July. Saddam must have expected the Americans to treat him in the way he
treated his enemies. The security of a cell must seem like a
haven.
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- Nor can Saddam be sent to Guantanamo Bay. But he will
be the world's most famous prisoner while he lives, and he will now live
longer than he might have expected on April 9. He will be tried in Iraq;
that is non-negotiable.
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- Saddam in power was a tyrant; Saddam in jail will be a
victim. The Americans did themselves little good by showing pictures of
Saddam's mouth being examined. Humiliation always invites
sympathy.
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- Saddam will have enough opportunity to reposition
himself during his trial. Lawyers will enjoy the opportunity of
defending him, with fame being sufficient reward for their efforts.
Saddam is sharp enough to know how to handle his own space in the
limelight and communicate with the world. He is an author of sorts,
having inflicted bad fiction on Iraqis when in power. He could turn to
non-fiction during the long hours of isolation.
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- The trial will be a formal opportunity for him to tell
his side of the story. The great mystery of the WMDs could finally end,
since there is now no scientist in Iraq who will fear Saddam's return to
power. And Saddam will, of course, happily provide the names of the
American and European companies who helped equip him with such
weapons.
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- The most important consequence of Saddam's capture is
the shift in the political scene of Iraq. The Shiites, so far, have been
quiet, almost neutral, in the conflict between the Americans and the
resistance. They hated Saddam. The televised scenes of joy in Baghdad
that were shown at Saddam's arrest did not mention that most of those
rejoicing were Shiites. That did not mean that they were celebrating the
American presence.
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- Bush has said that America wants to hand over power to
Iraqis by June 1. But which Iraqis will inherit and how will their
legitimacy be defined? If the means is going to be popular will, then
the ends might suit Tehran better than Washington.
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- The thought refuses to go away: has Saddam been caught
too soon for Bush's electoral comfort? There is another high-profile
fugitive on the White House's wish list. Perhaps, a quiet word to Kabul
and Islamabad should be passed on that the best time to get lucky is the
middle of next year.
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- http://www.gulfnews.com/Articles/opinion.asp?ArticleID=106463
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Mulindwas Communication Group
"With Yoweri Museveni, Uganda is in
anarchy"
Groupe de communication Mulindwas
"avec Yoweri Museveni, l'Ouganda est dans
l'anarchie"
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