The Red Pepper, May 28-31, 2004 Pg. 4
THE KINGMAKER
The Inside Story of how Mutale Defeated PAFO In Mbale by Elections
ON WEDNESDAY May 19, troubling intelligence information reached the clandestine task force that Museveni
had named for ensure the Movement victory in Mbale Municipality by election.
It was to the effect that PAFO, the anti third term lobby in parliament also known as Malwa, had
infiltrated Hassan Galiwango's campaign team and that if he won his loyalty to the third term in the crucial
battle for 2/3 majority in parliament could not be guaranteed.
Intelligence reported that sections of Galiwango's campaign team had received money from PAFO and that
since Galiwango had been a close ally of Wapakhabulo, who before his death was said to be showing signs of
secretly sympathizing with PAFO, there would be a problem. The next day, Mutale, a member of this clandestine
task force, readied himself to swing into action.
As you read this, Wasieba has been confirmed the winner of that by elections trouncing Galiwango by over
800 votes and ahead of multipartist Masika by over 3000 votes. In today's analysis we will show you how Wasieba
overcame Galiwango, the role played by the secrete Museveni task force and the implications for PAFO which has
now lost two by elections in which it invested heavily and on which it had hinged its hope of foiling
Museveni's ambitions.
Mutale's Men Under Arrest
You see the stakes in the Mbale by election were so high. Veteran UPC stalwart and ex chief justice George
Masika was coming back to claim his seat. This is the man who beat Wapakhabulo in 1994 and Mbale, having been a
UPC beacon in the 60s and 80s, it was feared this town could easily do for Masika what it did for him 10 years
ago. Other than the real UPC threat, PAFO has established itself as the strongest anti Museveni organization in
the country. It has no other agenda than failing the president.
In the Bushenyi by election, the group invested over 80m to retain the late Bigirwa's seat. It lost.
In Mbale it was hoping to ride on the perceived anti incumbency stance in municipalities and its recent
reinvigoration by welcoming into its ranks David Pulkol, to register its maiden win. Accordingly, PAFO sent
Nandala Mafabi and Salamu Musumba to shore up Masika or any viable candidate that it could convince to
articulate its sand in Parliament.
On the other hand Musevenists, desperate to ensure a 2/3 majority when the third term is brought in the
house, were willing to deploy any resources to win the seat. The president went to Mbale personally together
with Moses Kigongo to ensure that movement fielded one candidate. This failed. Other things had to be done to
ensure a win with multiple movement candidates. Kakooza Mutale, renown for his yellow bus where his lieutenants
carry whips to discipline the errant, was asked to take charge. And so the jockeying began. While Mutale and
the movement had been convinced that Galiwango, the Masindi RDC or Wasieba a former Works Junior Minister would
win, the situation changed on May 19 when the intelligence information we talked about at the start came. If
true that Galiwango's team had been infiltrated by PAFO, there was a real danger of Musevenists losing the
seat.
On May 20, Mutale left Kampala with all the logistics to pitch camp in Mbale. At 10am, his advance party
reached Namatala. But it was ambushed and arrested by a combined force of UPDF soldiers from the 3rd
Division and Police before being taken into custody. A while later, a squad of four Land Rovers with fierce men
wearing helmets and with enough firepower arrived in Namatala. Mutale was in this convoy. It drove to the
police station and freed the advance party. Our investigators have been told that Mutale immediately ordered
the arrest of RDC Seguya. To do this he first called Kirunda Kivejinja the minister in charge of RDCs.
Kivejinja had to plead with Mutale not to arrest the RDC.
The New Poll Dynamics
Having made it to Mbale, Mutale's first task was to establish whether Galiwango's team was being taken
over by PAFO. And his find was a yes. He also established that ministers Beatrice Wabudeya and Werikhe had
thrown their weight behind Galiwango but perhaps did not know of the latest development. So he decided to fight
the ministers, fight Galiwango, fight Masika and anybody else who opposed Wasieba. Mutale had five days to
ensure that Wasieba won.
Why IT Was Possible To Sell Wasieba
Although a reasonable dose of intimidation is necessary to win elections, you must have saleable
candidate. Wasieba was easy to sell. As a former minister he had helped build about 50 bridges in the
Mbale-Sironko area alone. He also convinced the contractor of the Iganga-Tirinyi road that was supposed to stop
at the Railway Crossing (two kilometers from Mbale town) to extent [sic] the road to the town. These were two
great achievements, which worked for him. As a staunch Musevenist and former minister his team told voters that
he stood a better chance than Galiwango of being named minister in the next reshuffle to take Wapa's place. And
as a minister he would bring more of the pudding home.
When it came to the third term, Wasieba had the most realistic approach. He told voters that as MP he
would come back to consult them when the matter came to parliament. This was in contrast with Galiwango's stand
that he would automatically vote for the third term and Masika's position that as a former CA delegate and
lawyer he saw no reason to change Article 105 (2). Then the Sebaggala factor. Wasieba's rivals constantly
poured water on his academic papers just like the Birigwas did with Sebaggala in the race for Kampala mayor.
This swung the huge �abatasoma' vote in Wasieba's favor.
The Battle on The Airwaves
While Kakooza Mutale did the kakuyege in which he is now a consultant, a lot of energy went into the
airwaves. Cecilia Ogwal traveled to Mbale and visited Masika at his pad in senior quarters where the duo chewed
the cud and discussed strategy. She then phoned into the local Top Radio's Development Forum program to
campaign for Masika. The following Sunday, she surfaced at St. Andrew's Cathedral to offer prayers for
Masika.
Salamu Musumba too phone in Top Radio and campaigned for the ex chief justice. Wasieba had LC V chief
Mujaasi calling in to ask for support on his behalf. Thus Top Radio became the forum to debate the issues. But
as the other candidates would soon discover, it was money and kakuyege that mattered most and with Mutale in
town, Wasieba had the most abundant supply of these two items.
D-Day
Kakooza Mutale left Mbale before the polls but he left behind a force of 75 men and women to campaign for
Wasieba. As polling time approached, the race was getting hotter. Galiwango's agents became violent like they
did in 2001 when they campaigned for Wapa. They started beating people in Namatala and Namakwenkwe prompting
Mutale's men to arrest 12 of them. Namatala and Namakwenkwe were critical areas because they hold huge voting
populations. It was no doubt that they became flash points for violence. In the dying days of the campaign, the
movement sent an extra Shs 40m to oil Wasieba's machine. This was in addition to the money he had shared with
Galiwango earlier in the campaign.
But the race was moving in Wasieba's favour. On Wednesday morning, the president on a trip abroad,
received the good news that Wasieba had won. He called State House to put the winner on line and congratulated
him upon his victory. He also asked him to preserve the unity of all Movement supporters in the municipality.
Once again, Musevenists had defeated PAFO on its second electoral outing. And if you want to know where
this third term thing is headed, look at the Mbale poll and take lessons.
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