New Strategy to Scuttle M-7's Third Term Bid
 
By DAVID KAIZA

THE OPPOSITION in Uganda has drawn up a two-pronged strategy aimed at blocking the planned lifting of the presidential term limit to give Yoweri Museveni another term in office, two months before the controversial issue goes before parliament for debate. 

The first strategy involves a number of lawyers in Kampala who are seeking to draw up a barrage of suits against President Museveni�s government and members of the ruling Movement independently, if the state holds the proposed referendum and lifts presidential term limits.

The second involves the traditional opposition, which has transformed itself into a single bloc known as the Group of Seven or G-7, and has joined forces with the breakaway group from the Movement Members of Parliament, Parliamentary Action Forum (PAFO) led by legislator Augustine Ruzindana, to block the amendment to the 1995 constitution.

The proposed amendment to article 105 of the constitution to remove term limits is expected to be tabled in parliament in August, after the budget debate is finalised. But the white paper on it has not yet been distributed.

PAFO spokesperson Ms Salaamu Musumba told The EastAfrican that the approach was geared towards blocking the amendment both in parliament and in the constitutional court.

"What PAFO is doing to ensure that we block the amendment is to have a third of the House, which we already have," said Ms Musumba, legislator for Bugabula county, in Kamuli district. 

"So our only mission at the moment is to build our numbers into a bloc," said the outspoken Member of Parliament, who was two months ago roughed up during a PAFO rally in Jinja.

Sources say that outside of parliament, the traditional opposition and its lawyers have drawn up plans to take government to court for an injunction should the referendum go ahead as planned, basing themselves on, among others, article 258 of the constitution which says the final decision on amending the constitution lies with parliament.

The opposition has had a number of successes in court petitions since 1999. The first was when they went to the constitutional court to challenge the referendum law in 1999 and when they challenged the national assembly powers and privileges statute, section 15, which barred Members of Parliament from giving testimony in court about proceedings in parliament.

They also challenged the 2001 presidential election and in 2002, the Political Parties and Other Organisation Act's section 18 and 19, which were declared unconstitutional.

PAFO�s position is being supported by Alias Lukwago, legal counsel for the Democratic Party (DP), who said the government will face numerous suits if it does not drop the plan to hold a referendum on parties and presidential term limits.

In parliament, the opposition say that they can count on 90 members to support them, and that it is the Movement that has been steadily losing support.

But the Movement says that it can count on upto 200 members to line up behind the term limit.

DP and the Reform Agenda MPs say that they are solidly behind the PAFO action.

The government, which supports the Bill, wants the two-term limit on the presidency lifted. 

But the opposition says that it is an attempt to give President Museveni, who will have been president for 20 years at the end of the current term, an extra or limitless tenure as president.

The drive to consolidate numbers is intended to influence the voting mechanism in parliament. The members say that the amendment can only be passed if the controversial voting system by which voices are raised in "aye" meaning support for the proposal and "nay," implying an objection to it, is followed. 

Under this system, the Speaker has to listen to which of the two sounds constitutes a majority and go with his judgement. But it has been criticised as indeterminate.

Members favour the secret balloting system in which members write down their preference. This is the favoured system, which the members say is democratic but is feared by the government.

The outcome is likely to depend on which voting system the Speaker chooses to go with. With accusations already floating that a move is underway to undermine the around the Speaker's power, the opposition say that they will force the speaker to have a division lobby.

To do this, opposition legislators will need to raise at least 45 members to object to the Speaker's choice of voting method. When this happens, parliamentary procedure demands that the Speaker constitute a division lobby. Under this system, members have to vote by writing their names against their decision. Movement Members of Parliament say that despite losing numbers to the opposition camp, they are still numerous enough to carry the day.

"One of the tactics of the weak is to make noise and to praise themselves," Charles Bakkabulindi, the workers representative to parliament, and chairman of the Movement Caucus, told The EastAfrican.

In apparent reference to the referendum, in which the government wants to include the question on the presidential term, he said that whether the limit was lifted or not did not depend on parliament's vote.

The actual number of Movement legislators who will line up to support the amendment remains uncertain. Going by precedent, very few bothered to show up last year to attend the meeting in Kyankwanzi at which the proposal to lift term limits was first put forward.

Additional reporting by Barbara Among 

 The Mulindwas Communication Group
"With Yoweri Museveni, Uganda is in anarchy"
            Groupe de communication Mulindwas
"avec Yoweri Museveni, l'Ouganda est dans l'anarchie"

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