Congo's Political Peace Poised On a Knife's Edge
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Business Day (Johannesburg)
June 21, 2004
Posted to the web June 21, 2004
Duncan Woodside , Business Day Correspondent
Bukavu
Nkunda rebellion shows fractious nature of nation's army
Although it has been nearly two weeks since rebel forces heeded a United Nations
(UN)-brokered deal to end their seven-day occupation of Bukavu in eastern Democratic
Republic of Congo, concerns persist about the durability of the country's transitional
administration.
Masterminded by renegade Brig-Gen Laurent Nkunda, the rebellion highlighted how
fractious the different elements of Congo's post civil war national army remain. The
malaise could well now embolden other disaffected elements to follow Nkunda's
aggressive lead.
Aside from the intentions of Nkunda, whose forces are now stationed around Goma, to
the north of Bukavu, the key question is how far he has the backing of higher-ranking
power brokers.
"While all is quiet at the moment, it is still unclear as to whether recent events
represent a temporary rebellion by an ill-disciplined subfaction, or whether support
is coming from higher ranking elements," says Sebastian Lapierre, UN spokesman in
Bukavu.
Recent events in Kinshasa would appear to corroborate the second, less palatable,
scenario.
A couple of days after government forces re-occupied Bukavu, there was an apparent
coup attempt in Kinshasa.
Immediately following the coup attempt, the president announced that the Congolese
people should "prepare (themselves) to resist", hinting that renegade elements have
been acting in collusion at a very high level. It could well be that President Joseph
Kabila suspects the loyalty of key actors within his power-sharing government,
including Vice-President Azarias Ruberwa.
During the 1998-2003 civil war, Ruberwa headed the Rwanda-backed Rally for Congolese
Democracy (RCD) the faction from which Nkunda hails.
How the crisis develops from here clearly depends on the medium-term response of
Kabila and Ruberwa. If the president does concentrate power, reducing the influence of
Ruberwa and other transition partners, then a disintegration of the coalition
government could follow.
If this is to be avoided, Ruberwa will have to convince Kabila that he remains
committed.
The situation is further complicated by the ambiguous position of Rwanda. The UN
Security Council issued a message of "serious concern" after spotting Rwandan Defence
Force troops in Congo during April.
A long-term de-escalation will require not only co-operation between Kabila and
Ruberwa, but also extensive and constructive use of Ruberwa's contacts with the
Rwandan government. Unfortunately, Rwanda still has a vested interest in retaining an
influence in eastern Congo.
A more immediate concern for the sustainability of Congo's transitional government
would appear to be the relationship between Ruberwa and Nkunda.
For relations in Kinshasa to improve the vice-president would surely have to break any
ties with Nkunda, who Kabila has said should be arrested. That, of course, would bring
its own risks.
Nkunda still has control of a significant force, and it is conceivable that other
former RCD officers in the east may yet join him, resulting in the creation of a large
organised splinter group.
For now, Nkunda is saying that he does not intend to go back on the offensive. He
claims that the former RCD leadership is furthering his concerns in Kinshasa including
his proposal that a probe be launched into alleged ethnic violence against the
minority Banyamulenge people.
What is clear is that the government itself has not signalled that it intends to
launch an investigation on this issue. What is also clear is that Nkunda played the
ethnic card as an initial cover for his aggressive actions even admitting at one stage
in a meeting with the UN that the threat of genocide had been overstated.
Relevant Links
Central Africa
Congo-Kinshasa
Post-Conflict Challenges
Yet, the irony is that Nkunda's aggression may now have sparked a genuine threat to
the safety of the Banyamulenge. Any sustained violence against the minority civilian
population could therefore allow Nkunda to play the ethnic card again.
This would enhance his prospects of persuading his former RCD colleagues to join his
renegade ranks for an renewed offensive in the region.
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