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KAMPALA — It is Friday afternoon and the chief negotiator, Ms Betty Bigombe, is airborne taking a draft memorandum of understanding to the Lord’s Resistance Army rebels, but before she lands somewhere in Palabek, Kitgum, a call comes in telling her not to land but to turn back.
The LRA had “smelt a rat”. At 4pm, an hour after the time earlier slated for signing the agreement, Internal Affairs Minister Dr Ruhakana Rugunda called a press conference and said the signing could not take place because the rebels had “delayed to respond to the memorandum.”
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| Internal Affairs Minister Rugunda and peace mediator Ms Bigombe address the press in Kitgum on Friday (Photo by James Akena). |
Eight hours later, the 47-day ceasefire expired and President Yoweri Museveni ordered the army to resume attacks against the rebels scuppering the entire peace process.
What went wrong?
The Monitor has since started investigations into what could have failed the peace process many hoped would end the 18-year war that has killed thousands and left 1.6 million homeless.
Sources close to the talks told The Monitor that parallel elements in the government and the Uganda People’s Defence Forces “worked against the talks from the start”. The LRA spokesman, Brig. Sam Kolo, also claimed likewise at the one of the meetings and in an interview with the BBC.
What the LRA says
The Monitor failed to get in touch with Kolo after the talks collapsed. However there were incidents that could explain the failure of the talks.
During the December 28 meeting at Paloda hunting ground, a junior rebel whispered in Kolo's ear. Another rebel commander stood to talk to another and a discomforting atmosphere ensued.
"You see, as we talk now the UPDF has deployed 2km away from here," Kolo said pointing in four different directions adding, "We are totally surrounded but we are soldiers." When The Monitor asked Kolo to point out names of the saboteurs, he declined.
Kolo said, "Our groups are scattered and when they try to come together, they get attacked by the UPDF.
The next day when the Rugunda team met Kolo, The Monitor heard one of the peace observers questioning UPDF deployments over a walkie-talkie minutes after the meeting.
Sources that attended the meeting claim that UPDF was gathering intelligence of the location of the rebels. Though the government said the LRA was locked in disagreement over the deal, up to yesterday, LRA's reasons for its failure to sign the truce were unknown.
What others say
Agago MP Prof. Latigo Ogenga, who attended the talks, accused the Northern Region Intelligence Coordinator, Lt Col Charles Otema, of working against the process from the start.
"I believed that people like Otema, who have got a hard-line stance and a mindset that this war can end militarily, is bolting the process," Latigo told The Monitor yesterday.
One religious leader in Gulu who preferred anonymity, said the UPDF maintained "a belligerent attitude. They planned attacks and threatened the process all the time."
Fr Carlos Rodriguez, a Catholic priest who has been involved in the peace process, said the deal would have been signed if all sides were a little more flexible.
"It is difficult to know who did what but Kony should not have rejected the document and the government should have extended the ceasefire at least for one more week," Carlos said.
Two days to the end of the ceasefire the European Union head, Mr Sirgurd Illing, said during an interview with the BBC that some UPDF officials "are living comfortably with the conflict." He said the UPDF should emulate President Museveni who said was interested in peace.
What the government and UPDF say
The Defence ministry issued a strong statement yesterday denying claims that some UPDF officials worked against the peace process.
"On the basis of the foregoing, ambassador Sirgurd Illing's malignment of the UPDF and Uganda must be rejected with the contempt it deserves," the statement signed by Army spokesman, Major Shaban Bantariza, said.
He told The Monitor in a separate interview that the UPDF was committed to the peace process and "Our stand now is that whoever wants to surrender calls Betty Bigombe (peace negotiator) and we shall give them a safe corridor."
Lt. Col. Otema denied allegations that he was plotting against a peaceful resolution of the northern war.
"I am a person who has a lot of interest in peace. How can they say that I am not interested in peace?" Otema asked. "What I am opposed to are the games Kony plays and this is just one of those games," he said.
There were reports that Kolo's peace team was attacked on January 1, hours after the 47-day ceasefire expired. The UPDF denied the reports.
"We did not attack Kolo's group. We attacked Lakati's group at the Uganda-Sudan border," Lt. Paddy Ankunda the northern army spokesman said yesterday. He said, "Kony has called most of them back to Sudan and ordered a small group that remained to kill people."
After the talks stalled, President Yoweri Museveni was in Gulu where he had his New Year celebrations during which he told the crowds that operations against the LRA "will not cease again until the Kony group irreversibly commit themselves to come out of the bush."
In a meeting with the peace team in Gulu yesterday, Museveni rejected their request to issue another one-week ceasefire and proposed that talks can be held in a foreign and neutral country as fighting resumes.
Therefore the talks could have failed because of persistent mistrust between both parties, extremist elements on either side who are benefiting from the war as Ambassador Illing said, and the absence of top LRA commanders who could make concrete decisions.
This could have impacted on the government's attitude towards the LRA. Other sources expressed doubts whether the LRA team was composed of movers and shakers or it was just a section within the rebels, which wants to end the war but has no capacity to influence their leaders into talking peace. | 
