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On The Mark:
With Alan Tacca |
Do Ugandans want another country?
Jan 30 - Feb 5, 2004
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In December last year, a Steadman Associates opinion poll revealed some interesting things going on in people's heads in East Africa, about economic and political unity in the region. (See Sunday Monitor, January 9; The Monitor, January 15; The New Vision, January 9.) Unfortunately - perhaps because of New Year distractions and the plague of dry banana leaves that is nearer home than the east African fever - Ugandan commentators have not poached on the Steadman findings as vivaciously as they might have done. There was, for instance, the statistic that confirmed Uganda as the natural home of the slave-wish. Conducted in the regional capital cities of Kampala, Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, and two border towns, the respondents, who overwhelmingly expected Kenya to benefit most from trade opportunities, also expected Uganda to benefit most from employment opportunities. In other words, while Kenya was expected to produce and sell more goods in the region, Uganda was expected to boost its role as an exporter of kyeyo labour. To put it another way, after the giddiness from this old NRM hype about a vision for Uganda as an industrialised, modernised and self-sustaining economy, our people have sobered up and are now resigned to a dream of finding those attributes in other countries. With the queues of visa-seekers for Europe and North American destinations already ridiculous, the Steadman poll suggests that a lot of Ugandans would pour across the border to look for jobs in Kenya if the political federation became a reality. Of the East Africans who planned to seek employment outside their country of origin, 45 percent would go to Kenya, 22 percent to Tanzania, and a miserable 20 percent to Uganda. To confirm the deficit of faith Ugandans had in their own economy, while only 44 percent of Kenyans and 65 percent of Tanzanians wanted a common East African currency, a whopping 82 percent of Ugandans would go for it. There is a set of statistics that should allow President Museveni to sleep with only one eye closed, and get international financiers and policy-makers to sit up and re-examine their assumptions: less than half of Kenyans and even fewer Tanzanians want to pursue higher education in their respective countries, whereas a majority of Ugandans would rather study at home. Indeed, for some years now, a lot of Kenyans and Tanzanians have been flowing into Uganda's educational institutions. And yet, with medicine and nursing among the ruling NRM's pet professions, and inspite of the reputation of the medical schools at Mulago (Makerere) and Mbarara, only 19 percent of East Africans would want to get medical attention in Uganda, 10 percent in Tanzania, and an overwhelming 68 percent in Kenya. Subject to several modifying circumstances, it seems that an education system that multiplies in quantity and quality may turn out to be of limited value to the community if economic and other social development areas are significantly lagging. I am aware that what I am saying has controversial implications. But we are back to the question of politics. The "official" global wisdom is that an educated population (hence heavy investment in this area) will inevitably lead to economic and socio-political improvements. I am not so sure. Perhaps it is a chicken and egg catch. But sometimes I am inclined to the view that economic and socio-political improvements are more certain to lead to a demand - and acquisition of - the skills (education) required, rather than the other way round. Indeed, I figure that a vibrant education system would gradually lose its motivating force if the general society does not reap much value from its products. Even if he sends $200 to his family every month, which of course is welcome, the larger Ugandan community perceives no direct benefit from a Ugandan doctor working in Boston or Nairobi. The Bank of Uganda statistic of over $500 million in foreign exchange earned annually from foreign-based Ugandans is just that - a statistic. Perhaps it means that the rulers may import more guns; perhaps it means mere toys for the privileged; who cares? That is why I believe that the management of a country is a more integrated enterprise than generally supposed. And it is because of Uganda's erratic record on this score that so many Ugandans are in effect (practically and psychologically) looking for another country. The widespread desire to work elsewhere, or for another currency, implies that the conditions at home have led very many Ugandans to feel like "exiles" in their own country. To crown this interpretation, of the respondents in the Steadman poll, more Ugandans (44 percent) than Tanzanians (38 percent) or Kenyans (23 percent) wanted to come under the rule of one regional President. If the Steadman people had asked a series of questions to throw more direct light on the reasons behind this pattern in the context of the current East African leaders, they might have found that a lot of those Ugandans would choose Mwai Kibaki or Ben Mkapa (or some "other" person) for the common President, rather than Museveni. Or, if they chose Museveni, for many it might have been on account of two inseparable reasons: one, because he was the homeboy. And two, because there were citizens and political and security agencies in the other two countries to tame his less attractive tendencies. It is a roundabout way of getting to "belong" to another country. |
� 2005 The Monitor Publications
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