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'Neither Kony Nor Museveni Wants' War to End
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The East African (Nairobi)
February 7, 2005
Posted to the web February 8, 2005David Kaiza
NairobiA BRITISH think tank publication has expressed scepticism about the possibility of the war in northern Uganda being ended through the peace talks of December 2004, saying neither the government nor the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) is interested in peace.
The Oxford Analytica, a publication of the Oxford University, says despite hopes that the peace deal between the Khartoum government and the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) will help end the conflict, the signs are that this will not happen.
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LRA leader Joseph Kony seems to have foreseen that Khartoum would cut off support and took steps to ensure that he continues to survive in the absence of Sudanese government support.
At the same time, the journal says, the Uganda People's Defence Forces (UPDF) will try to ensure that the war does not end since this will lead to changes that its leaders do not want.
"For this reason," says that journal "and because neither the government forces nor the LRA are keen to sign for peace, the conflict may well continue indefinitely."
Says the journal, "The LRA has stashed arms away for just such an eventuality and could probably survive for years even without its Sudanese backers. The LRA has managed to use Uganda's porous border with Sudan to great effect. Backing from the Sudanese government has also been important, as Khartoum has been the only known source of arms and medicines for the movement."
Another reason for scepticism, according to the publication, is that neither the government nor the LRA is motivated to pursue peace.
It draws on the political context of the war which goes beyond the military stand-off between the government and the LRA, which has lasted for two decades: That the north, which has been and continues to be marginalised by the Museveni government, will not offer the necessary support to the UPDF.
Kony is said to be using his forces sparingly, never exposing his best fighters to any military confrontation but instead fronting abducted children in army fatigues to the line of fire, while his soldiers retreat.
At the same time, LRA leaders who may want to end the war are afraid of Kony while distrusting the government and the UPDF's overtures. They refrain from expressing any wish for peace for fear that Kony will read this as weakness on their part.
Of the government's unwillingness to end the war, the paper says, "Museveni is determined never to sit down with Kony, since this would bestow on him the legitimacy of being a fellow African leader and 'freedom fighter'."
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Civil War and Communal ConflictIt goes on to say that there are reasons for the army not wanting to end the fighting. "Should the fighting stop, the government would be unable to continue resisting donor pressure to scale down the size of its armed forces and the budget that goes with it. Army commanders would also have to cut back on their lavish lifestyles and ability to milk the military budget by pocketing the salaries of 'ghost soldiers' and other forms of corruption," says the journal.
A much-hyped meeting between the LRA and the government came to an abrupt end on December 31, when the LRA accused the government of pushing a one-sided agreement
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