[Ugnet] Shame on Tambo Mbeki for Supporting Museveni: SA Sends in Police Armour as Museveni Faces Civil Unrest

South Africa has supplied 30 Buffel armoured vehicles to boost the Ugandan police as the government braces itself for increased civil disturbances. The ruling National Resistance Movement is facing a legitimacy crisis.

The armoured personnel carriers arrived in the country at the beginning of April and will supplement the existing five. They will then be fitted with water canons. South Africa is also one of the major suppliers of tear gas to the Ugandan Police.

SA has already supplied Buffel APCs to the Ugandan army, as well as Eland armoured vehicles.

Supplies come at a time when Yoweri Museveni foresees a rising tide of civil disturbances as domestic opposition steps up pressure to make him drop his bid to lift presidential term limits.

They have brought into sharp focus the contradictory role of the SA arms industry in a region that the SA government is seeking to stabilize through diplomacy and peace force interventions. Its main arms maker, Denel, is nearly bankrupt and needs to show bigger profits and last month Amnesty International sharply criticized the government for turning a blind eye to illegal arms sales in the Great Lakes region. South African companies are already involved in selling hundred of tons of illegal weapons there, Amnesty said, adding that the SA government had not prosecuted any of the implicated companies.

In Uganda the opposition momentum rose after Irish singer and activist Bob Geldof advised Museveni during the launch of the British-initiated Commission for Africa report to step down when his terms ends in 2006.

Pro-Museveni demonstrations ensued criticizing Geldof and the UK. This was a mistake of sorts in the government's strategy; it then had to allow an opposition demonstration organized by six mainstream opposition groups led by Muwanga Kivumbi, leader of the 'Popular Resistance against Life Presidency'.

Having realized the impact of the demonstration - it was aired on 140 international television stations and attracted the attention of two US senators - government cancelled a so-called 'one million march' to Kampala that organized by the 'Force For Change'(FC), led by former director of the External Security Organisation David Pulkol and ex-Kampala mayor Nasser Sebaggala.

FC defied the ban, though a combination of military, police and local militia blocked their march to Kampala. Demonstrators were met with teargas and water cannons, bringing the central district to a full stop.

Commonwealth pressure

Nevertheless, Museveni remains determined to push through constitutional amendments that will, among other changes, allow him to stand again.

Pro-Museveni legislators maneuvered their way into dominating two crucial parliamentary committees. One of these is the legal committee charged with drafting of an omnibus bill containing 120 amendments. He has also distributed Shs5 million to each legislator who supports him.

The Commonwealth secretary general, Don Mackinnon, who visited Uganda on April 6, was aware of the machinations and reminded Museveni of the need for transparent political reforms. The West fears a flawed political process and the US has also advised him not to seek another term. Western officials have reminded the Ugandan military of the need to remain neutral.

Nevertheless, Museveni is preparing for the worst. Already the inspector of the police, Maj-Gen. Katumba Wamala, has said the police will be backed up by the military.

South Africa is coming increasingly into the spotlight. Officially it has remained neutral and has resisted requests from the Ugandan government to deport opposition leaders based in SA. At the same time it has been broadly supportive of the government.

Analysts say that the Museveni government has produced economic prosperity in its 20-year rule, but they remain doubtful whether it can generate the conditions for a functional democracy that then can sustain economic growth.

A US Central Intelligence Agency report on Uganda from February 10 this year noted an economic slowdown and cast doubt on continued economic growth, given the worrying political trends.

Ugandan academics and politicians are concerned that the NRM is diverging from its original political programme. Juma Okuku Anthony, a Ugandan academic at SA's Wits University, believes that Museveni's democratic doctrine and its application since 1986 reflects more the political realities of legitimizing and maintaining power than the emergence of a novel form of democracy.

The NRM's "broad-basedness was to legitimize NRM an organ with a narrow social base as it extended its grip on power", he writes.

South Africa is now awaiting a report, expected in August 2005, from a team of Nepad (New Partnership for African Development) experts led by Professor Adebayo Adedeji on the Ugandan political path.

Meanwhile it has apparently taken the decision to back Museveni's form of stability through support for his security forces.

[Ugnet] Shame on Tambo Mbeki for Supporting Museveni: SA Sends in Police Armour as Museveni Faces Civil Unrest

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