| Tue, Aug 09, 2005 22:12 UT |
Sudan peace process crucial to White Nile oil deal
LONDON, Aug 2, 2005 Sudans fragile peace process will determine the fate of a major oil exploration deal following the death of the countrys first vice president John Garang, analysts said on Tuesday.
| Sudans First Vice President Ali Osman Mohamed Taha (L) and Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement leader John Garang show the signed peace accord at a ceremony in Kenyas capital Nairobi, January 9, 2005. (Reuetrs) . |
But doubts linger.
"There are definitely challenges and obstacles that need to be overcome through the implementation of the peace process," said Africa analyst David Mozersky of the International Crisis Group (ICG).
In January, southern rebel leader Garang signed a peace pact with the government of Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir to end two decades of civil war.
A month later, the former Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) led by Garang, secured a promising oil deal with White Nile. It has sparked controversy ever since, with Khartoum disputing the SPLMs right to award oil deals and French company Total claiming it has drilling rights to the block.
"Garangs death has shaken up the big picture," said Mozersky.
"But its more a question of having to cope with the loss of a tremendously popular and charismatic leader who came to embody the peace agreement rather than starting from scratch."
Garangs ally and successor, Salva Kiir, now steps into the breach. Analysts say although he lacks Garangs authoritative grip on the countrys political and military structures, he commands considerable respect.
"It seems fairly clear that Kiir is well positioned to step into Garangs official positions," said Joshua Mandel of Control Risks Group.
A crucial task will be settling the White Nile dispute.
Under the pact, White Nile plans to acquire a stake in the 67,500 square km Block Ba in southern Sudan from Nile Petroleum, owned by the SPLM, in exchange for a 50 percent stake in the firm.
White Nile, which estimates that the block holds up to five million barrels of oil, remains bullish after Garangs death. The firm said on Monday it was sent a "very strong message from Sudan that... going forward it will be business as usual."
NEW OIL PANEL TO PLAY KEY ROLE
Sudans soon-to-be created National Petroleum Commission (NPC) will have the authority to deal with new oil concessions and may play a leading role in settling the White Nile dispute.
"If this tragedy can be overcome and the peace process can be kept on course, then hopefully the NPC will be set up and become a transparent regulatory body for the petroleum sector in Sudan," said Mozersky.
Southern Sudan, in need of billions of dollars to rebuild after what was Africas longest-running civil war, is trying to attract investors to the region to tap its oil wealth.
Oil production, now at 320,000 barrels per day (bpd), comes mainly from fields in the south, where Chinese, Malaysian and Indian firms are the big investors.
(Reuters/Sudan Tribune)
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