[Ugnet] DP on the rocks as Sebaggala, Sebaana, Mao launch bids for party candidature

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Monitor,August 31 - September 5, 2005

DP on the rocks as Sebaggala, Sebaana, Mao launch bids for party candidature EMMANUEL GYEZAHO & VICTOR KARAMAGI In what will go miles in ensuring that the Democratic Party waves good bye to any chances at assuming the Presidency in 2006, Chief Seeya Alhaji Nasser Ntege Sebaggala announced his candidature for the March polls on Saturday. Not surprisingly, he is running on an independent ticket. Or so he says. While Sebaggala may realise that his party will not pick him as presidential candidate, the nonconformist politician has decided to go it solo. Sebaggala brings chaos It is now official- the DP woes are far from over. For a man who commands massive support from the party's down trodden youth-who make the biggest composition of Uganda's oldest political party- a breakaway firmly spells doom for the mainly Catholic-Ganda DP. YOUNG, ABLE, AMBITIOUS: MP Nobert Mao OLD AND EXPERIENCED: Mayor Sebaana Kizito ROWING AGAINST THE TIDE: Hajji Nasser Sebaggala WORRIED AND WORRYING: DP boss,Dr. Paul Ssemogerere It is no secret that Sebaggala stands by far as the DP's most populist leader, whose candidature as thus on an independent ticket is simply bad news for the party. Backed by a large following of the party's biggest composition-the erratic youth-DP can count themselves out of the next polls. With Seeya off, the party ticket, you can firmly count a huge chuck of the mainly youth, out of DP. Since his sojourn from the UK, Sebaggala's presence in town has only caused trouble for the party. First he sparked massive revolts against the Presidency of Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere arguing that Ssemmo is way past his prime. Then he set up a youth brigade for his personal protection. This obscure misfit organisation has quickly built a reputation for itself as a ragtag riffraff group talented in breaking up rallies and locking up party top shots (City Mayor Sebaana Kizito was held hostage in his house for over three hours courtesy of the brigade). Too many candidates While the rest of the opposition parties can firmly zero down onto one or two candidates to front their quest for the plush environs of state house in 2006, the same cannot be said for the Democratic Party. Up north, stands the versatile and astute Gulu Municipality MP Norbert Mao backed by the Northern vote. Further down in central, stands the old man about town, Kampala City Mayor John Sebaana backed by Buganda vote. Then you have the ever-present controversy called Nasser Sebaggala and Paul Ssemogerere who has never said yes, I will stand, but has declined to say no either. He is never far from pulling a surprise himself, for better or for worse. This means that DP is surely headed for more trouble, as the battle over who the party endorses as its presidential candidate begins. Mao was last week endorsed by the northern region as their DP candidate. The DP USA caucus also weighed in days after, endorsi ng Ssebaana at a three-day conference in California. US based Prof. Richard Otto said that he had taken leave off his commitment in the US and flew into the country early August to arrange for his campaigns. Discrimination of tribes Mao's group could push for his candidature on the basis of regional balancing. There has been a long running accusation that the top DP leadership has for a long time been dominated by Buganda. Within DP, there is thinking, especially among non-Baganda that some information considered sensitive to the party hierarchy is kept way from them. But considering the current composition of the mainstream leadership, Mao's group will have a difficult time selling this line of thinking. Ssemogerere (President General), Sebaana (National Treasurer) and Damiano Lubega (Organizing Secretary) are from the Buganda region. On the other side, Boniface Byanyima (National Chairman), Zachary Olum (Vice President General), Mariano Drametu (Secretary General) and Francis Bwengye are all from outside Buganda. The problem is not about the numbers, but about who heads the party. No other person outside Buganda has been Presid ent General of the party, and the group will push to break this dominance. Sebaana has the financial muscle to see through his candidature. The USA caucus that endorsed him contributes a significant chunk of money to the party's budget. Sebaana's supporters argue that he is a candidate with more experience, whose chances of putting up a good show in the 2006 general elections could salvage DP's pride. He won the hot Kampala mayoral seat, despite the efforts of President Museveni to thwart his victory. Mao’s challenge On the other hand, Mao will have a hard time convincing the party to put its hopes in his limited experience at the top level. The history of DP also means that Mao faces the task of breaking the Ganda dominance of the position. All this sets the stage for DP to either compromise some of the members' positions, or sink further. Relative calm elsewhere In the NRM, President Museveni is a unanimous decision for the party candidature. In FDC, it will be between Mugisha Muntu and Kizza Besigye. Besigye's position leaves Muntu as a clear choice. In UPC, iron lady Cecilia Ogwal has sorted out her differences with party President Dr Milton Obote. Only Rwanyarare could cause trouble but on the whole, the old man in Zambia has everything under control and although he is not eligible, there is likely hood that he will negotiate a flag bearer acceptable to all. This cannot be said of DP. Even without Sebaggala going it alone, all may not be well for the green party. And now that the spoiler cannot give up his presidential ambitions, DP will once again find itself on a stretcher. The woes continue for an institution quite uncharitably referred to as the “Dead Party”, but always proving its critics right. ---- Kakooza picking the broken pieces VICTOR KARAMAGI As the Democratic Party (DP) got embroiled in conflict, some of its members started a clandestine plan to draw up a strategy for 2006 with a view of presenting it to the party hierarchy at a later stage. At the centre of this was a 50-year-old lawyer, John Baptist Kakooza. And as reorganisation goes on, DP could turn to this very strategy. Kakooza, like any DP faithful mourns the time lost as conflict tore DP apart. But he also points an accusing finger at Government. "They bought off some people, but let them remain in the party to destroy it from within," he says. Nevertheless, he sounds confident talking about how the party is trying to make the best out of what is left. He does not readily admit, but it is evident that he expects to be at the deep end come as 2006 nears, most probably as DP Secretary General. In the foreseeable future, Kakooza could be influential in the party's affairs . At the height of the conflict, Kakooza was appointed as caretaker Secretary General until the party was registered, assign of the confidence the leadership have in his capabilities. He was also chairing meetings prominent party members were holding in March, which he now says were aiming at coming up with a party strategy. "We figured the internal wrangles could mean that we might run out of time at the crucial hour and had to have a strategy waiting," he says. That many ambitious DP hotheads saw it fit to be the chair at the time when the party was in trouble cannot be taken very lightly. Kakooza To survive, DP’s leadership must compromise. Their conflict means that a radical young leader will not take up such an influential position as party Secretary General. But it also means the Ssemogerere generation may not keep the position. At 50, Kakooza could turn out to be a compromise candidate for the position. When Kakooza speaks about the performance of the current parliament, he sounds a very bitter man. "The country must consider what kind of parliament it wants to have. This one has not only embarrassed the country and themselves. How van they be bought so openly and they go on as if nothing is wrong?" he says. He does not say he will contest for a seat. "The party will work on that," he says. Information available still shows that he remains undecided whether to go for the Kalungu West constituency or not. In 2001, he lost out to Anthony Yi ga by about 6990 votes. He will not find it easy to take the seat, the reason he is working to secure a position in the party executive. After leaving the NSSF where he was Corporation Secretary for 12 years, he went into private practice and is now Managing Partner in Mutyaba, Kakooza & Co Advocates, a private law firm in Kampala. Kakooza who holds a law degree from Makerere University and a Masters from Free University of Brussels will also offer the much-needed cool headedness DP needs badly. He is a member of DP National executive Committee and was also part of the committee that drafted DP's views to the Odoki Commission that drafted the 1995 constitution. However, questions still remain on his ability to deliver politically, particularly, his appeal to the electorate. Although he still represents Bugadi region in the DP NEC, the miserable loss in the 2001 parliamentary elections does him no good. If he becomes the Secretary General, can h e preside over a party that is torn up by internal wrangles and keep it from disintegrating? And just after laying their differences aside, the Ssemogerere and Sebaggala factions exchanged blows at a city square rally to celebrate the party's registration. So, can he ensure that the 'ceasefire' between the two factions does not fall apart? DP offers the best litmus test for his organisational capabilities. Will he prevail? Let’s watch and wait.

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