[Ugnet] Too little, too late? 2/2

[musamize]

==== more excuses =====

 

The Real Culprits in Lake Victoria Water Drop

The Nation (Nairobi)
NEWS
March 3, 2006 


By Helle Maj and Angelo Opio Izama
Nairobi

Although drought has been blamed for the dramatic fall in Lake Victoria's water level - a clear two meters below the level it was 45 years ago - experts say the main cause of the drop is miscalculations at a World Bank-supported dam in Uganda that has resulted in the pumping out of more water from the lake than should be allowed.

The experts are warning that if the situation is not reversed, the O wen Falls Dam (today called Nalubaale) and Kiira Dam, which was built just a kilometre from it, may have to be closed down in less than two year's time, especially if the current drought persists, further compounding the power crisis in East Africa.

The World Bank in consultation with Uganda chose to build Kiira next to Nalubaale despite warnings from environmental organisations and engineers, who included Ugandan MP Hilary Onek.

Mr Onek, a specialist in water and dams, warned back in 1996 that the lake would not be able to handle the new dam, which was built to ease Uganda's electricity shortage.

A consultant for Uganda's Ministry of Water, Klaus Nuri Moeller, also reached the same conclusion: "There is simply much more water running out than is coming into the lake," he says.

Projections were changed

The experts are in agreement that in the past two years, Uganda has let out much more water than agreed, so the lake has fallen one meter more than expected, while drought and evaporation are to blame for the rest of the loss.

Work started on the Kiira project in 1993 and the first two turbines and generator units were commissioned in 2000. The third turbine was commissioned in 2002. It has three floodgates with a capacity to handle 1,740 cubic meters of water per second. Kiira power station was only supposed to produce 105 MW of electricity, but before the construction started the projections were changed, raising its output to 200 MW. Nalubaale was to continue production at full capacity. To attain this output, it was necessary to change the interpretation or the calculation of how much water is normally let into Lake Victoria.

In 1962 it rained extremely heavily over Lake Victoria and its water catchments area. And the next two years rain also fell in abundance. As a result, the water level in the lake rose more than two meters. From an average of 1,134 meters above sea level in the period 1900-1960, the lake had in 1964 risen to 1,136 meters. "And since 1964 there has been approximately 50 per cent more rain over Lake Victoria than the previous 60 years. That's a phenomenon which nobody really can explain," Moeller says.

In their feasibility studies, two consulting companies - Acres International and Kennedy & Dunkin - gave conflicting reports on what Kiira's capacity should be, apparently based on different sets of data.

Acres International based Kiira's capacity on statistics of net water inflow from 1961-1988. "What they did was basically not to include the years 1900-1960, and by doing so, there was suddenly plenty of water for the dam," says Moeller.

Meanwhile, says MP Onek, Kennedy & Dunkin, as well as other consultants, made their own calculations and concluded that there was not enough water for Kiira. The World Bank chose to believe Acres International.

By ignoring data between 1900-1962, Acres International failed to show that the lake is subject to hydrological cycles, sometimes depleting its waters, like the period prior to 1962, and other times increasing its volumes when abundant rainfall fell in the region.

But in 2002, says hydrologic engineer Daniel Kull in a report released last month, a World Bank's Investigation Panel concluded that "the Owen Falls complex (Nalubaale and Kiira) is over-designed and incapable of full capacity," if the lake's average flow is 650 cubic meters. Kull says this conclusion is beginning to ring true in light of the current situation where the water level has dropped severely and outflow has reduced. "Those using data only after 1960 are of the opinio n that the higher water levels and thus outflows from 1960 are relatively permanent, representing the modern state of the lake."

That period shows an average flow of over 1,000 cubic meters while the period before 1960, based on different computing values, shows outflows of less than 700 cubic meters and in some instances around 600 cubic meters which would then explain the conclusion reached by the World Bank in 2002.

From natural lake to a reservoir

Kull is emphatics that the construction of Kiira parallel to Nalubaale had the effect of sucking out over twice the amount of water that was already being pumped out of Lake Victoria.

"Since 1959, the outflow of Lake Victoria - the second largest freshwater lake in the world - has been under human control, through the Nalubaale Dam. The construction of this hydropower dam effectively tran sformed Lake Victoria from a natural lake to a reservoir, controlling the lake's outflow to the Victoria Nile (which eventually becomes the White Nile," Kull says.

He says that while the outflow of Lake Victoria was originally driven by inflow from tributaries, rainfall on the lake, and by evaporation, it was controlled "hydraulically" by Ripon Falls. "Ripon Falls acted as a natural weir and constriction, allowing a certain flow of water to exit the lake depending on the level of water in the lake."

Nalubaale Dam submerged Ripon Falls, which were also excavated, letting the dam to assume hydraulic control over the lake, he says. Bilateral agreements between Uganda and Egypt maintained these natural flows along an "agreed curve," basically dictating how much water should be released from the lake, based on the lake's water level. "This operating rule was developed in a way to retain the original (natural) pre-Nalubaale Dam relationship between lake level and outflow," Kull says.

But after Kiira was built to satisfy Uganda's thirst for more electricity, that balance was disrupted.

Indeed, Kull says that in 2004 and 2005 alone, the water released from Nalubaale and Kiira was more than 50 per cent over the agreed curve flow. "It must be concluded that the severe Lake Victoria drops occurring in 2004 and 2005 were about 45 per cent due to drought, and 55 per cent due to over-releases from Nalubaale and Kiira," he says.

Technocrats used wrong data

The critical question now is what scenario is more likely to prevail in the future - the period of abundance or of reduced rainfall - and for how long Uganda can hope to continue generating electricity from the two dams.

After reviewing meteorological data, Kull says, "It is u nknown if Lake Victoria will recharge to the high levels and outflow experienced during 1961-2000 and if such a recharge could occur, whether it would be in the next [few] years or only in 100 years."

Mr Onek does not doubt that it was wrong to place Kiira just next to the old Nalubaale dam

"They split the Nile and thought that there would be more water coming out. That is not possible," he says.

He has calculated that if both Nalubaale and Kiira continue operating at maximum production - when two extra turbines are installed as planned - they will need 1,800 cubic meters of water per second.

"That is about double as much as the Nile at Jinja is capable of providing. Our government has been led by politicians and technocrats who have used wrong data," Mr Onek says.

Mr Moeller adds: "If the drought continues and the huge outlet from the two dams continues then it will only take one to one-and-a-half years before the dams have to be closed down. The water that has been let out is obviously not coming back. It can take 10 to 15 years before the water level is anywhere near normal."

Today Kiira is only making 40 MW, although it should produce 120 MW. The water is simply not there and the result has been load shedding and power rationing in the past few years. Uganda's Association of Manufacturers estimates that the daily blackouts have resulted in a 30 per cent fall in Uganda's industrial production. At the same time, electricity bills have risen by almost 25 per cent. and the highest 10 per cent have almost a quarter of the household income share.

Africa Insight is an initiative of the Nation Media Group's Africa Media Network

 

==== more finger pointing ====

 

Who Let The Waters Out?

The Monitor (Kampala)
NEWS
February 7, 2006
Posted to the web February 6, 2006

By Muhereza Kyamutetera
Kampala

EFFECTIVE yesterday, Ugandans plunged into an even worse power crisis when Uganda Electricity Generation Company Ltd, sliced by a sixth, the amount of power it produces at the country's two major dams.

In an exclusive interview with Daily Monitor, Electricity Regulatory Authority, Chief Executive Officer, Eng Francis X. Ssebowa, said: "Effective Monday 6, in order to save the lake, generation is going to fall from the current 170 MW to 140 MW."

The reduction, he said, is to save the falling waters of the Lake Victoria.

This means that including the 50 MW produced at the Aggreko thermal plant at Lugogo, Uganda will now be producing 190 MW, further escalating the nation's power deficit from 130 MW to 160 MW.

Now, Daily Monitor has learnt from reliable sources that the 30 MW will mean Ugandans will have to go for twelve hours everyday without electricity up from eight hours.

"The load shedding will be so bad. Between you and me, I can tell you that it will now be a 6 to 6 rationing schedule. If you are switched off at 6:00 p.m. you will get back power the next day at 6:00 a.m. and if you are switched off at 6:00 a.m., you will get the power at 6:00 p.m.," said a source from the Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Ltd (UETCL).

Uganda has an installed capacity at her two major dams combined, of 380 MW (Nalubaale 180 MW and Kiira 200 MW).

Uganda's energy demands are estimated at 350 MW.

Just over a week ago Umeme announced an extension of the daily load shedding hours to 2:00 a.m. from 7:00 p.m. to 'allow the water levels to be regained to usable levels.'

Umeme added that from now on, Ugandans would from time to time, other than the stipulated load shedding schedules, experience emergency or non-scheduled load shedding, something the company referred to as 'the best solution available' given the current power supply situation.

Once completely submerged, these metal beams are now a reminder of the receding level of Lake Victoria water. The water level has dropped by 2.5 meters. While the solution remains delicately elusive even to engineers, electricity supply is short endangering all sectors of the economy.

Umeme Communications Manager Robert Kisubi said that it was true that the amount of power available from UETCL for Umeme to distribute would reduce, beginning today, but de clined to comment on the 12-hour load shedding schedule.

"Yes, it is true we shall be getting reduced supply from UETCL but the details I am yet to know," he said on phone.

Asked about the increased load shedding hours, he said: "we will shortly be sending a new load shedding schedule to the press," he said.

It is not clear whether one of the dams will be shut down but Ssebowa said that he expected the newer Kiira dam to be used more.

"For the little water that we discharge, it is best that we use the new Kiira dam because for every cubic meter of water, we pass through Kiira, we get more output because the machines are new and more efficient. I believe that both dams will be used but it is up to the engineers to use the most efficient turbines," he said.

He appealed to electricity users to be more carefully in using electricity and advised those who can afford alternative energy sources to do it.

Mitigation measures

Ssebowa said that the government is in different stages of generating up to 150 MW of thermal power. One plant will be installed at Mutundwe, another at Namanve while a third one at Lugogo.

All the three plants are to use heavy fuel oil, which is cheaper than diesel currently being used at the Lugogo plant.

Bids for the first 50 MW plant at Mutundwe, were opened on January 25. Three companies bid for the multi-billion-shilling project.

African Power Initiatives from Virginia USA bid $42.9 million (Shs77.5 billion) and will produce the power at $17 cents (Shs309) per Kilo Watt hour (KWh) and will deliver it in 90 days.

Electromaxx bid $34.1 million (Shs61.6 billion ) and will deliver it at $14 cents (Shs260) per KWh and will deliver in 12 months while Norway's Jacobsen Electro AS bid $52.4 million (Shs114 billion) at $11 cents (Shs 249) per KWh and will deliver between 9-12 months.

The Aggreko Lugogo produces at $24 cents (Shs434). This was, however, subsidised by the government to 13 cents (Shs235).

"We have put together a team of engineers, economists and representatives of UEGCL and UETCL and ministry of Energy to evaluate the bids," he said.

He said the bids would be evaluated for technical competence and experience, financial competence, intended price of the power and the period within which the power can be delivered.

"We hope recommendations will be available for the authority to make decisions within two weeks," he said.

Evaluation started yesterday.

He said that given the falling levels of the lake, the government was now considering increasing the output at Namanve to 100MW.

"Namanve is being speeded up but you should realise that more thermal power will mean more expensive power," he said.

Ssebowa said that ERA is also at different stages of licensing a 5 MW mini hydro at Ishasha on the Uganda Congo Border and 10 MW at Kikagati near the Tanzanian border.

But with the erratic rains and a demand growing at 30 MW annually and expected to grow even bigger as the country develops and as politicians implement their promises, these initiatives cannot do much.

Expensive power

As if load shedding is not bad enough, Umeme's Managing Director Paul Mare says that as the power goes on reducing, the company will be forced to increase tariffs some thing expected to be greeted with protests from the consumers.

"Load shedding has two impacts," he says. "Other than the fact that there is no power, to us it means that the costs of the entire electricity sector goes up because we are now distributing our costs over reduced production. Unless there can be some subsidy obtained, the price will go up because the sector has to make up for the rising cost of production,"

Who let the water out?

Right from the commissioning of Kiira dam, a lot of finger pointing has been going on with mainly the environmentalists on the offensive.

The environmentalists blamed the government, World Bank and Acres International - the hydrologists who okayed Kiira dam saying that the existence and location of Kiira jeopardises water flow of the lake.

There have also been uncon firmed reports that Egypt bribed engineers at Eskom-run Uganda Electricity Generation Company (UEGCL) to free more water to Egypt at night.

The government and the co-accused have, however, said that all is well and have blamed the excessive water loss on the long drought that has hit Lake Victoria basin.

One hydrologist at the National Water and Sewerage Corporation who prefers to remain anonymous referred to the question of who let the water out as being more of a political question than anything else, partially put the blame on the drought which he blamed for causing more than 40 percent of the excessive water loss.

"As you may know, drought affects the lake in two ways. Other that reducing on the water collected in the catchment areas of the Victoria basin, it also takes out the water directly from the lake through evaporation and this accounts for about 40 percent of the water los s from the lake," he says.

He adds that if nothing is done about the restoration of the vegetation cover, even the expected production at Bujagali would be affected.

"The power production at Bujagali was estimated when the water levels were healthy and now that they have taken a plunge, you should also expect a plunge in what will be produced there," he warned.

Engineer Hillary Onek, a one time MD of NWSC and a respected hydrologist also at one time blamed the drop in the water levels on the two dams which are almost adjacent to each other, an idea that UEGCL engineers quashed as views from 'Person(s) with no knowledge, let alone experience, to categorically state that Owen Falls Extension design/selection was in error.'

Ssebowa says that though the existence of Kiira in a way has contributed to the drastic drop in lake levels, the dam is not the probl em. He explains that the problem is that the policy makers have failed to stick to the agreed technical plans.

"If you remember well, Nalubaale dam was built between 1954 and 1969 when the last turbines were put in place. The life span of a dam is 50 years and accordingly the 1954 turbines should have been closed last year and 2019 should be the end of the last turbine at Nalubale," he explains.

Onek adds: "From the engineering point of view, Kiira should have been a replacement for Nalubale because it was expected that as we gradually decommissioned Nalubale, the closed-off water would be channelled to Kiira enabling it to produce at full capacity when Nalubaale is finally closed in 2019," he said.

He says that if everything had stuck to plan, there would not be much of a problem.

"When later, the two dams were completed, the politicians either becaus e they were misled or because they expected political mileage out of it thought that since Nalubaale's installed capacity was 180 MW and Kiira 200 MW, the two dams could co-exist, producing up to a combined 350 Mw or so. Little were they told that the two dams would affect each other's capacities and with time both capacities would reduce," he says.

"Well, somebody is afraid of taking this decision but soon the decision to close Nalubale will have to be taken. Whether people like it or not, Nalubale will have to be closed," Onek says.

Tough times ahead

With the erratic climate not about to change, Mare says that the future of power sector only depends on Bujagali.

"I see the tough times going on till the time when Bujagali is completed, in the mean time, we are going to have a heavier reliance on thermal power, which is more expensive, but once Bujagali bounces on, then everything will be normal again," he prophesies.

---

Relax. Yahoo! Mail virus scanning helps detect nasty viruses!

_______________________________________________
Ugandanet mailing list
Ugandanet@kym.net
http://kym.net/mailman/listinfo/ugandanet
% UGANDANET is generously hosted by INFOCOM http://www.infocom.co.ug/


The above comments and data are owned by whoever posted them (including 
attachments if any). The List's Host is not responsible for them in any way.
---------------------------------------