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KAMPALA
Forum for Democratic Change leader Kizza Besigye's defeat has exposed
the dangers of his politics of disconnect with the majority of the Ugandan
electorate.
After his defeat in 2001, I wrote that one of his problems was that he
was essentially media candidate whose paper weight challenge was fanned by
one of the biggest media houses. When he lost, he ran to the courts
alleging fraud.
But the majority of the judges saw through the hollowness of the
petition and they threw it out. In 2006 we see a repeat performance. Just
as in 2001, Besigye once again became the media candidate and its darling.
In the end he became its victim and that proved his undoing.
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Brig. Henry Tumukunde was
involved in a scuffle with guards over connecting a generator that
his wife delivered to him in
prison |
Because he was essentially a media candidate, he was mesmerised by the
urban crowds and forgot that Uganda is still 85% rural.
As the media touted his presumed immense popularity, it energised his
anger and hatred for Museveni. As the media drove him on with false polls,
he began to believe that such anger and hatred were shared by the populace
and he began to believe what he was hearing, namely that he would sweep
the country.
An example was the Weekly Observer of 16 February 2006 which told
Besigye that Museveni had lost such support in Buganda he would get a mere
30%. That false prediction prompted me to ask where Besigye hoped to get
the votes to defeat Museveni in Buganda? (New Vision 17/2/06)
A deceptive 37%
In the end Besigye got a flattering
but deceptive 37 per cent of the vote. I write as someone who campaigned
in a number of districts and who knew what was inside the Movement Bus.
Confusion accounted for Besigye's inflated percentage. Otherwise his
actual strength was much less.
For us on the ground, we did not see a tight or a neck and neck race.
Indeed, for anybody to believe that Besigye would win demonstrated how
disconnected such a person was with the masses. Besigye had no message
except (Museveni) "AGENDE" (Museveni should go) plus other wild claims.
For the majority of voters, Besigye was long on anger and hatred but
miserably short on what he was planning to do for Ugandans. He epitomised
a man who was ready to wreck the peace, the stability and the security of
person and property, the very things that ordinary people cherished.
President Museveni on the other hand, had a clear message of peace,
stability, economic growth and prosperity. Ugandans who had had no
experience of disciplined soldiers except under Museveni respected his
strength and management of the army.
Those of us who were on the campaign trail enjoyed FDC's bankruptcy of
ideas and it was not difficult to trash their wild and false
accusations.
For example, I used to distribute newspaper cuttings showing that
Tanzania was also rationing electricity and the draught had brought hunger
and starvation to Kenya. President Museveni's Manifesto and other
documents were full of useful data on the achievements of the
Movement.
Nevertheless, as political leaders and notwithstanding President
Museveni's popularity, we must accept that there were things about which
the electorate was angry. Though not fatal for the President, the poor
performance of a number of district administrations could have provided
ample material for Besigye to exploit and hit the NRM.
Did not expect to win
I can assert that Besigye
himself did not expect to win, nor did his image-makers. When the Weekly
Observer poll showed that Museveni would get a mere 30% in Buganda, I
telephoned the editor and challenged him for a bet. He declined and said
that his bet would be the issue of 23 February 2006. In reply to the
Observer poll story I wrote saying that Besigye would be defeated in
Buganda (and he was).
I also predicted that he would allege that President Museveni had
stolen his votes. Besigye is saying just that. I asked, "Where will
Besigye get the votes he was claiming?" I repeat the same question today.
Let him show the country the votes Museveni stole in Masaka, Mubende,
Kiboga, Rakai, Sembabule, Nakasongola etc.
I shall soon publish the results of research that shows that multiple
voting especially in the urban areas is a specialty of the opposition
parties. That is one of the reasons for their victories in Kampala and
other urban centres. When we turn to the issue of the missing names on the
registers, I must say that they included many who were Museveni's
supporters.
For example, the whole of my family and household in Muyenga did not
vote because their names were nowhere to be seen on the register. Besides,
their polling station at St. Henry's Primary School, they visited
neighbouring polling stations to check their names, but it was to no
avail. Thus President Museveni lost eight votes of my household.
When we turn to the question of invalid votes, evidence will show that
such votes must also have included many which were Museveni's.
The heavy rains on polling day also hurt President Museveni more than
they hurt Besigye because Museveni's supporters are elderly and did not
rush to vote because they believed that they had the whole day to
vote.
I felt it was wrong for the Electoral Commission not to extend polling
time where rain had seriously disrupted voting.
Besigye's court
petition is intended to stymie and tarnish President Museveni's victory.
The race was no tight despite the Monitor's claim because the 22
percentage point gap cannot by any stretch of the imagination be called
tight.
Besigye thinks that Ugandans are fools. For him it is fine
to win by over 80% in the north. When President Museveni wins by similar
figures in his strong areas that must be through rigging. I expect their
Lordships on the Bench to reject that kind of reasoning.
Prof. Semakula Kiwanuka is the minister of state for finance in
charge of investment. | 
