US And Israel Need
To Rethink
Strategy
By Terrell E. Arnold
8-19-6
- If there is anything more obvious on the global scene
today than US and Israeli efforts to goad Syria or Iran into war, it
could only be Israeli efforts to goad the Palestinians into a constant
state of revolt. Events in Iraq and Lebanon make it clear that any
country either Israel or the United States chooses to assault will be
treated to the fully panoply of modern warfare, including uses of
illegal or indiscriminate weapons such as cluster bombs and depleted
uranium projectiles against civil populations.
-
- In the run-up to war with Iraq, threats, repeated
bombings in the no-fly zones and constant verbal harassment never once
caused Saddam Hussein to issue a threat or to do anything that looked
threatening. From start to finish, Saddam played as one who knew
he was totally outgunned, and it is clear now that US leaders knew that
equally well. The US attacked anyway, and, using shock and awe air
bombardments of cluster bombs and depleted uranium weapons, virtually
destroyed a country that they knew in advance could not fight back. Now,
however, enough Iraqis are fighting back so forcefully that the only
safe place for foreigners is inside Baghdad's "green zone," while Iraqis
in general live in fear.
-
- Israel repeated that game plan in Lebanon. Israel knew
that Lebanon had no forces to fight back on land, water or air. It had
ample reason to expect that Hezbollah would operate largely in southern
Lebanon. But Israel chose to destroy the infrastructure of the
entire country, in effect, inflicting on the whole of Lebanon the
pattern of collective punishment it uses against Palestine.
-
- While the alleged plan was to root out Hezbollah, the
Israeli campaign to destroy Lebanon's infrastructure was really a plan
for the IDF to do target practice on undefended civilians and public
infrastructure. The goal was to sow fear and paranoia among the
people to deter future efforts to fight back, and to provide a flashy,
shock and awe, example to all Muslims.
-
- Now that the shooting has stopped, having destroyed an
undefended country, Israel is still unable to declare victory because
the insurgents haven't given up, nor are they likely to do so. In
Palestine nearly sixty years of similar treatment--since the
Palestinians never had armed forces--has produced generation after
generation of Palestinians who refuse to quit fighting back.
-
- Leaders of nominal learning will have gotten the point
of this appraisal by now. It might have occurred to the actors in these
campaigns that such extreme punishment of innocent people produces a
growing cadre of individuals and groups who will seek revenge.
Lately discovered schemes to blow up airliners enroute from London's
Heathrow to US destinations--even though some analysts suggest the plans
were defective--are only the latest examples of things angry people and
their sources of support can do.
-
- American, Coalition, and Israeli actions in the past
three years have caused enough mayhem in Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine
and Lebanon to supply the world with terrorists for many years. Under
this plan of global hostility renewal, the new generation is likely to
be more determined, harbor larger senses of injury, and receive more
widespread support than any previous generation of insurgents to
date.
-
- What they are fighting against has nothing to do with
so-called Islamic fascism, as George Bush put it, or hate for
Americans--even though that is obviously growing. The families, friends,
co-religionists, and countrymen of the people injured or killed by
American and Israeli actions are driven by motives that are simply
human. The victim charges are blunt. Consider this a summary
quote: "You are destroying our homes, our families, our livelihoods, our
societies, and you belittle our beliefs; we have every right to fight
back by whatever means we may contrive, and some of us will do
so."
-
- But evidence continues to mount that the events to
date are a side show, maybe a foretaste, of actions the neo-cons and the
Israelis would like to provoke. Neither Syria nor Iran has
threatened the United States. Their threat to Israel centers on their
support for the Palestinians and Hezbollah. Both Syria and Iran have
made private and conciliatory moves toward the United States. Hezbollah
is charged with attacks against the US in Lebanon two decades ago, and a
number of overseas attacks, e.g., against the Israeli Embassy in Buenos
Aires, Argentina. But no mention is made of the provocative activities
of Mossad in neighboring countries or of the IDF in Palestine and
Lebanon.
-
- The operative assumption in both Washington and Tel
Aviv seems to be that Hezbollah is solely an agent of Syria and
Iran. Since neither Syria nor Iran represents a threat to the
United States, the US/Israeli argument is that both are using Hezbollah
to threaten Israel. However, as Lebanese Shi'a who lived through Israeli
occupation and have just endured the Israeli attacks on Lebanon, members
of Hezbollah need no promptings from outside to act against Israel
wherever they can.
-
- With extravagant US financial and military support,
the Israelis sow anger and paranoia among the Palestinians and Lebanese
Shi'a. That may seem perverse, but the Israelis need the violent
reactions of Hamas and Hezbollah to maintain their carefully cultivated
victim status in the United States. While they would like to destroy
Hezbollah and Hamas so that the Palestinians will no longer interfere
with plans to occupy the whole of Palestine, Israel actually needs
lethal looking and active enemies to execute this plan.
-
- The big problem with Hamas is that it has a clear view
of what is and is not possible with the Israelis, and Hamas is prepared
to fight for the Palestinian people. The big problem with Hezbollah
obviously is the amount of trouble it makes for northern Israel, but
that is mostly irritating to Israel because Hezbollah consistently has
interfered with Israel's decades-old plans to annex the Litani River and
southern Lebanon. Destruction of Lebanon in the effort to eradicate
Hezbollah has made enemies of most of the Lebanese people. Israel's game
plan appears accordingly to have been set back.
-
- The follow-on Israeli/US game comes down to an effort
to drive both Syria and Iran to behavior that is paranoid enough to
cause either or both to make mistakes that can be used as a pretext for
war. Both Syria and Iran seem amply conscious of this dangling
trap. However, both have ample reasons to prepare for the worst,
and it appears that is what they are doing. In the case of Syria, the
virtual destruction of Lebanon on the other side of the Lebanon
Mountains is probably meant as a demonstration of what Israel could do
to Syria--with ample US support-- if given an excuse. The lesson for
Iran is no less apparent in the awesome destruction that mainly the US
Air Force wrought on Iraq for no real military purpose.
-
- Given their behavior to date, both Syria and Iran have
demonstrated a prudent control over their emotions and reflexes. Bashar
has largely kept his head down and cooperated with the United States
where that was sought, including reported provision of torture camps for
so-called extraordinary renditions of prisoners. Ahmadinejad has
been outspoken at times, but he appears to have stuck closely to nuclear
activities that are defensible under the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty. Meanwhile, he has made several efforts to create a dialogue with
the United States, all of which have been rebuffed. In short, momentum
appears to have grown everywhere except in Washington and Tel Aviv for
diplomatic approaches to Syria and Iran.
-
- Both Syria and Iran look prepared to go very
deliberately about their defenses if challenged. That means any
encounters are likely to be expensive to both sides. What Hezbollah has
done to the Israelis in Lebanon--for example disabling more than 20 of
their new generation tanks--can be done elsewhere. In that sense,
prudence, maybe even a bit of paranoia about possible Syrian or Iranian
reactions to attack, seems entirely in order for both Washington and Tel
Aviv. Unfortunately, the detachment or the will to assure that appears
lacking in both places.
-
- **********
-
- The writer is the author of the recently published
work, A World Less Safe, now available on Amazon, and he is a regular
columnist on rense.com. He is a retired Senior Foreign Service
Officer of the US Department of State whose immediate pre-retirement
positions were as Deputy Director of the State Office of
Counter-Terrorism and Emergency Management, and as Chairman of the
Department of International Studies of the National War College.
He will welcome comment at [EMAIL PROTECTED].
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