Somalia: Up to 12 Countries Could Be Sucked Into Conflict
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The United Arab Emirates, particularly Dubai, is said to be the financial centre for Somali businessmen with an interest in the ongoing conflict. Qatar is said to have "increased interest" in Somalia after its leader, the emir, "invited the chairman of the executive council of Islamic Courts for talks late last moth."
Although Prime Minister Gedi has accused Iran of providing arms to terrorists in Somalia, the country's role in the conflict is not so open. As a country dominated by Shia Islam, Iran is reported to have had little interest in predominantly Sunni Somalia.
However, "this may be changing," the report says, especially after the Iranian leadership questioned the wisdom of sending a peacekeeping force to the country.
The US role on the other hand is driven by concern over the entrenchment of fundamentalism in the country and its possible spread to the region.
The US is also worried that the Islamists might turn Somalia into a neo-Taliban regime. Since early this year, the US had committed substantial financial resources to arming the warlords' outfit - Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT) - for the campaign against suspected Al-Qaeda elements there.
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But this has been described by Le Monde Diplomatique as a "policy blunder" as it earned the Islamists nationalistic support from ordinary Somalis.
"In theory," says the report, "the ARPCT was supposed to pursue al-Qaeda terrorists. In reality, it had its sights on the Islamic Courts."
This is said to have encouraged the Islamists to strike first, a mission they accomplished in February. Analysts believe that by doing so, the US unwittingly fuelled the rise of the Islamists and by wanting to bring together friends and foes for an anti-Islamist assault, it could actually foment a serious international conflict in the Horn of Africa.


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