Opposition must have goals beyond winning election Michael Madill They say you should never waste a crisis. The government knows this instinctively, judging by recent events, but I wonder if the proponents of democracy understand it. The rioting which set Kampala alight is about to become a missed opportunity to press for a significant re-apportioning of political power. There is nothing about the Kabaka’s planned visit to Kayunga which would have advanced the cause of restraining the government had it succeeded.
An event which was initially and correctly portrayed as government meddling in a land dispute was warped into a personal struggle between two figureheads of the undemocratic traditions which make political reform here so difficult. If, for now, the President seems to have won and the coming reaction does not too severely damage his personal popularity among Baganda voters, the hand of the government will be stronger as 2011 approaches. He has shoved the Baganda off the fence, forcing many of their leaders to declare themselves or at least make political gestures which he can bank for later, like the emptying of Parliament of most of its Baganda members on the first day of rioting. The Baganda, by contrast, have gained nothing. Kayunga is still in dispute. The Kabaka so far appears outmanoeuvred by the President. And aspirations for more independence at Mengo have not advanced. Don’t be so certain that the government has lost all electoral support among the Baganda, either.Rioters are generally partisans and uncommitted voters don’t often riot, so the people in the streets recently were probably never going to vote NRM, if they voted at all. This is part of the problem. In order to get sufficient momentum for changing the party in government or for constitutional change in order to limit the power of government, the opposition need to bring more than just votes on election day. They need to push the government and the ruling party into a corner, facing an array of political forces which leave it no option other than change on an opposition programme or the uncertainty of a revolution which would probably mean more violence. The government probably won’t sanction any discussion of constitutional change, and now it will point to the riots as evidence of what might happen if we put more power into the hands of the kingdoms or the districts. With Buganda boxed in, all power which flows to the traditional leaders and to the districts is firmly in the hands of the centre. If there were genuine popular support for federalism or some other constitutional re-arrangement, the government might feel pressure to loosen up. But such support would threaten the power of traditional leaders in the kingdoms as much as it would threaten the central government, and so it will be discouraged as much by them as by the centre. Real federalism is the peak of people power. It means local control, village control of political life. In a radically devolved federal Uganda, the Kabaka would play as benign a role as the President. Neither could agree to this and remain as powerful as each believes he is today. A further obstacle to reform is the inability of opposition types to agree on what they stand for. All profess a wish to eject the President and his party from government, but none have so far told us what they will do if this comes to pass. The people who advocate for democracy are not all talking about the same thing. Most opposition politicians seem intent on winning control of State House and Parliament and a majority of the big districts. A small number proclaim the need to cede governmental power to traditional leaders. Many of each group advocate constitutional change and a federal union. But this won’t be enough to pull off a successful and peaceful transition, even if the opposition wins in 2011. There must be not only a clear programme of policies for a new government to follow, but also an undercurrent of desire for change. This means that the opposition must have goals beyond winning an election. Democracy demands participation. One cannot be against everything and automatically be for democracy. [email protected]
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