Assad is here to stay sir the sooner you get it the better.
EM
On the 49th
Thé Mulindwas Communication Group
"With Yoweri Museveni and Dr. Kiiza Besigye Uganda is in anarchy"
Kuungana Mulindwa Mawasiliano Kikundi
"Pamoja na Yoweri Museveni na Dk. Kiiza Besigye Uganda ni katika machafuko"
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Allan
Sent: Thursday, July 18, 2013 10:53 PM
To: U-A-H
Subject: {UAH} Momentum Shifts in Syria, Bolstering Assads Position
BEIRUT, Lebanon Not long ago, rebels on the outskirts of Damascus were
peppering the city with mortar rounds, government soldiers were defecting in
droves and reports circulated of new territory pried from the grip of
President Bashar al-Assad.
President Bashar al-Assad's resilience suggests that he has carved out what
amounts to a rump state in central Syria that is firmly backed by Russia,
Iran a
As his losses grew, Mr. Assad unleashed fighter jets and SCUD missiles,
intensifying fears that mounting desperation would push him to lash out with
chemical weapons.
That momentum has now been reversed.
In recent weeks, rebel groups have been killing one another with increasing
ferocity, losing ground on the battlefield and alienating the very citizens
they say they want to liberate. At the same time, the United States and
other Western powers that have called for Mr. Assad to stepdown have shown
new reluctance to provide the rebels with badly needed weapons.
Although few expect that Mr. Assad can reassert his authority over the whole
of Syria, even some of his staunchest enemies acknowledge that his position
is stronger than it has been in months. His resilience suggests that he has
carved out what amounts to a rump state in central Syria that is firmly
backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah and that Mr. Assad and his supporters
will probably continue to chip away at the splintered rebel movement.
Assad is powerful now, not as a president who controls a state but as a
warlord, as someone who has more and more sophisticated weapons than the
others, said Hassan Hassan, a Syrian commentator at the Abu Dhabi-based
English-language newspaper The National. He is not capable of winning back
the country.
The civil war has Balkanized the country, with an array of armed groups
controlling different areas. The government retains its grip on the capital
and has been solidifying its control over a string of major cities to the
north. Rebel groups hold large swaths of land in the countrys north and
east, though they are far from unified, with militias competing for
resources, imposing their own laws and sometimes turning their guns on one
another. The Kurds, Syrias largest ethnic minority, control their own areas
and often fight to keep the rebels out.
Over all, about 60 percent of the Syrian population lives in
government-controlled areas, while the rebels effectively control 60 percent
to 70 percent of the actual territory, said Andrew J. Tabler, a Syrian
expert with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. That is because
the rebels are strongest in less populated rural areas, he said.
But a stalemate that has divided the country for months has begun to shift
as Mr. Assads forces bolstered by regular support from his allies have
rolled back rebel gains and eased the pressure on the capital.
Even fighters who had hoped that Mr. Assad would end up deposed, dead,
jailed or exiled like other autocrats singled out in the Arab Spring
uprisings have begun to acknowledge the emerging reality.
If the revolution continues like this, the people will revolt against us,
said a rebel commander from the central city of Homs, where Mr. Assads
forces have made gains in recent days.
The commander, who wanted only his first name, Ahmed, used to protect his
family, criticized his fellow rebels for putting the interests of their
brigades ahead of the wider anti-Assad struggle and accused them of hoarding
powerful weapons or selling them for a profit. That lack of unity has
prolonged the war and made their mission harder, he said.
If a regular Syrian comes and asks me what we have given him, I dont know
what to say, Ahmed said.
Throughout the more than two years of fighting, the military prowess on both
sides has been heavily linked to the reliability of their international
backers. Mr. Assad has received continuous military and financial support
from Russia and Iran as well as added muscle on the battlefield from
Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and political party. While he has
come to rely more heavily on local militias, the clear command structure of
the army and Mr. Assads status as a unifying figurehead have kept his
forces together.
Meanwhile, the many rebel groups have had to compete for irregular bursts of
support from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and a range of private funders, each with
its own ideological interests. This has exacerbated tensions among the rebel
groups, as a win for one is seen as a loss for others. The rise of
Qaeda-linked groups like the Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria has further splintered the cause, with some Syrian fighters resenting
international jihadists who have joined the battle to serve their own ends.
The United States and its Western allies have pressed for Mr. Assad to leave
power and talked about arming select rebel groups. The European Union lifted
its arms embargo on Syria, which rebels expected would lead to weapon
supplies.
But rebels say none have arrived so far.
They do not want the fall of this regime; that is why they are not
helping, said Gen. Salim Idris, the head of the Free Syrian Army, a loosely
knit umbrella group that has been soliciting aid and that is supposed to
funnel it to vetted groups while keeping it from extremists.
General Idris accused the West of delaying with endless meetings, summits
and requests for new guarantees that extremists would not get arms, and
said this left the rebels at a huge disadvantage against Mr. Assads forces.
They have Russia and Iran and Hezbollah, he said. But these democratic
countries that call for freedom, when you have people seeking freedom from
dictatorial, oppressive regimes and need help, they do not give any aid.
But in recent months, the rebels have also failed to consolidate their
victories, plan and execute new advances and provide basic services to
civilians in areas they control.
Nearly a year after launching the battle to take Syrias largest city,
Aleppo, the city remains damaged and divided. Many residents blame the
rebels for bringing the destruction.
Farther south, government forces with help from Hezbollah seized the town of
Qusayr last month, depriving the rebels of a key pathway for arms and
fighters from Lebanon into central Syria.
Since then, the rebel movement has shown signs of internal disarray. Clashes
among battalions are on the rise, and many who welcomed international
jihadists for their battlefield skills have turned against them. Last week,
extremists killed two rebel commanders in separate episodes in northern
Syria.
All of this has given Mr. Assad a new level of confidence, said Assem
Kansou, a member of the Lebanese Parliament and the local branch of Mr.
Assads Baath Party whose children grew up with Mr. Assad and who has
visited him frequently throughout the crisis.
Mr. Assad appeared worried months ago when rebels on the outskirts of
Damascus often fired shells at downtown, said Mr. Kansou. But his mood
appeared better last month, after the army took Qusayr and pushed the rebels
farther from the capital.
Now you sit with him and you see that he is at ease, " Mr. Kansou said.
Hes a person who is very confident in himself, working bit by bit. All
needs to be fixed, but he has a sense that this crisis will pass with all of
its consequences.
--
*A positive mind is a courageous mind, without doubts and fears, using the
experience and wisdom to give the best of him/herself.
We must dare invent the future!
The only way of limiting the usurpation of power by
individuals, the military or otherwise, is to put the people in charge -
Capt. Thomas. Sankara {RIP} 1949-1987
*Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent
revolution inevitable**
*J.F Kennedy
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