Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Controversy erupts over returnees
Controversy has broken out over the alleged presence of up to several
thousand Kinyarwanda-speaking returnees in M23 territory.
For several weeks, there has been a steady movement of Congolese refugees
into the Kibumba area north of Goma, the southern edge of M23 territory.
According to several UN sources, there may be up to 3,000 such returnees in
this area, mostly Congolese Tutsi who fled the country, some as long ago as
1994, and were living in refugee camps in Rwanda.
Another group of around 100-200 families then arrived on 30 September
further north, in Jomba. According to some sources, these families may be
Rwandans who were expelled from Tanzania weeks ago.
Very few of these families are probably from this areaa UN official told
me that some of them had tried unsuccessfully to cross toward Masisi, which
is probably where many of them are from. Their presence has raised
questions. Some think that the M23 could use them as human shields in case
of another round of fighting. A UN official told me that, given how close
they are to M23 positions, it would make it difficult to employ UN attack
helicopters in those areas to the same extent as they did during the August
fighting against M23. If their arrival is confirmed, at the very least this
is a lack of foresight and regulation by the various authorities, including
UNHCR and the Rwandan National Council for Refugees.
Posted by Jason Stearns at 8:00 PM
The US blocks military aid to Rwanda
Few international news outlets picked this up, but it was an important
decision. Yesterday, the US government decided not to grant a waiver to
Rwanda for the use of child soldiers. Every year, the White House has to
provide waivers to countries that the State Department reports as using
child soldiers. This year, that report listed Rwanda as complicit in the
recruitment of child soldiers for the M23. Still, the government could have
provided a waiveras it did in the case of four countriesbut it chose not
to.
This decision is symbolic, as it will probably only affect around $500,000
in training programs for the Rwandan army, but is nonetheless important. It
can probably be interpreted as the first official indication in monthsthe
UN Group of Experts report in July suggested that Rwandan support had
declinedthat members of the international community feel that Rwandan
support to the M23 continues. The UN suggested as much in a closed door
briefing to the Security Council in late August, but there has been little
public pressure on Rwanda. (President Paul Kagame even shared a stage with
Elie Wiesel in New York during the General Assembly and discussed health
care with Bill Clinton at the Clinton Global Initiative).
Posted by Jason Stearns at 7:27 PM
How many M23 can reintegrate?
The peace talks in Kampala have stalled since President Kabila went to the
UN General Assembly. The two week extension announced by the facilitation
has expired, and while the parties are set to convene again this week in
Kampalaand despite occasions outbursts of optimism from diplomatsthere
is little sign that much has fundamentally changed.
The main issue is still the fate of the top leadership of the M23. While the
M23 has officially claimed that they do not want to integrate into the
Congolese army, in practice the talks have revolved around the issue of
amnesty and integration for M23 officers. At a meeting in Mbarara around two
weeks ago, the Ugandan facilitation pushed the Congolese
governmentrepresented by the head of the intelligence service, Kalev
Mutondto be more flexible regarding the issue of amnesty. The initial
position of the Congolese was that there should be no "recidivism," as they
put it. In other words, those who had already benefited from amnesty in the
2009 deal could not receive a second amnesty for the crime of insurrection.
That meant that the entire officer corps of the M23 couldn't integrate. The
Congolese, fresh from their victory against the M23 in late August, seemed
eager to return to the battlefield.
Since then, the Congolese have relaxed their position a little, without
really changing the impasse. On 19 September 2013, Communications Minister
Lambert Mende said that they have a list of around 100 people who couldn't
integrate. While the M23 might number between 800-1,500 troops, the list of
hundred included every single important commander (see here for the list).
In recent talks at the UN General Assembly and in Kampala, there are
suggestions that the Congolese could go down to 30 or 40 officers.
But is the problem here really the Congolese? It is true that excluding 30+
of the top commanders is tantamount to rejecting any peaceful compromise.
But even if the Congolese would be willing to go down to fewer than
tenwhich some close to Kabila suggest they areit will still be next to
impossible to get the M23 to agree to the arrest or send its own leadership
into exile. And it's not just the Congolese drawing red linesthe US has
sanctions against Kaina and Makenga (and Ngaruye and Zimurinda, who are in
Rwanda), and the UN has denounced the same five for atrocities.
The closer one looks at the problem, the more one wonders why so much
emphasis is being put on negotiations with the M23, who are unlikely to hand
over their top commanders. More and more, it appears that the solution for
the problems of the M23 has to be sought between Kigali and Kinshasa, not
between Kinshasa and the M23.
Thé Mulindwas Communication Group
"With Yoweri Museveni and Dr. Kiiza Besigye Uganda is in anarchy"
Kuungana Mulindwa Mawasiliano Kikundi
"Pamoja na Yoweri Museveni na Dk. Kiiza Besigye Uganda ni katika machafuko"
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