> > http://westphillydata.library.upenn.edu
>
>
> Something seems amiss with the 2000 data as presented at this website.
>
> I looked at census tracts 77 + 87, which more or less cover Spruce Hill.
>
> The 1990 census had these tracts, together, with a population of 11,776 and a
> total of 6,104 housing units. The population number is well below the 16,000
> cited by the Spruce Hill Community Association, but seems at least in the
> ballpark because the census tract boundaries seem somewhat more restricted
> than SHCA's. But the 2000 figures given here are population of 9,579 and
> housing units of 5,255 when the screen first comes up, then population of
> 8,583 and housing units of 4,679 when you ask for a display "without bar
> graphs."
>
> The 1990 --> 2000 discrepancy doesn't make sense considering the census tract
> boundaries don't "seem" to have changed. And the with --> without bar graph
> differences are a real mystery.
>
> Perhaps you can get Dr Wong to look into this.
Hard to tell "Who's on first" ... I get other "different" numbers!
(Look at the Spruce Hill/Woodland Terrace Neighborhood pages )
First, the census tract boundaries are pretty solidly fixed. I see only
one tract which was split between the 1980 and 1990 Census, and none
combined. (See the Census tract page.)
As for why the discrepancy between the 16,000 number Spruce Hill uses and
the 1990 numbers... the answer there is simply "time."
Since that 16,000 number was used when I first moved to the area in the mid
80's, I would assume that it came from the 1980 census at best. At worst,
it came from some politically defined number that fit what the elected
politicians of the area wanted it to be, and not particularly related to
reality. (Planning Commission folks know what I'm talking about here.)
So if we assume that the 16,000 number came from the 1970 or 1980 Census or
from the City Planning Commission - the number is simply out of date.
If however, the number came from then Congressman (not Councilwoman)
Blackwell's office, then all bets are off.
...actually, looking at the verbiage on the Spruce Hill web site... I just
realized -- bet I know where the number 16,000 came from -- it refers to
University City!
Back in the early 1980s, there was an effort to brand an area in West
Philadelphia as "University City." [Before the University tried to call all
of West Philadelphia "University City."] I have some maps from that effort
-- and the important thing to know is that it not only included 87 and 77
but also included Powelton (90) with a population in 1980 of 4382. (The PDF
file from the bottom of the lists currently defines University City as
tracts: 76,88,89,91.)
Creating a University City of tracts 87, 77, 90 gets us 14,035 in 2000 --
not far from the 16,000!
The easiest "explanation" for the population drop is in housing unit
numbers shown at the bottom of the 2000 data in the section (not separated
from the 2000 data) labeled "Changes in Census Data from 1990 to 2000"
(this is on the neighborhoods pages)
Spruce West
Hill Phila Phila
Total Housing Units (2000) 3,791 92,244 661,958
Total Housing Unit (1990) 4,273 94,940 674,899
A drop of 11.3% in the number of total housing units in the Census tract.
The number of Occupied units also dropped -- by 9.9% in Spruce Hill.
The number of owner occupied units dropped by 5.8% to 359 and the
number of renter occupied units dropped by 10.4% to 3,032.
And interestingly, the number of Vacant Units declined by 21.4%. I guess
either implying demolition or renovation. Also, the Spruce Hill/Cedar
Park areas had dramatically smaller increases in the number of vacant units
than the surrounding communities.
I would suspect that an even greater drop occurred between the 1970 and/or
1980 census and 1990. There was a continuing drop in population in the area
between 1970 (1960?) and about 1995. Since about 1995, there has been an
increase in population as the area has become more gentrified, and as
Center City "filled up." (Witness the dramatic rise in property values
after years of steady decline.)
Keep this fact of life in mind -- during the past 30+ years, Philadelphia
has slid from being the 3rd largest Metropolitan area to being 4th (or was
it 4th to 5th, I forget.) In any case -- the City of Philadelphia lost
massive amounts of population. Philadelphia long ago ceased to grow. It is
a fact that was ignored by recent administrations and only admitted to,
finally, by the Street Administration.
However, I don't find any population figures to match yours for the 2000
census -- only housing unit data on the West Phila data site. You have to
get them from the PACDC site....
As for the difference with and without bar graphs... obviously one counts
the barflys and one does not...(sorry about that.)
Actually, for 77+87 I get different numbers from you.... with graphs, I get
8583 (same number) and without 9587 (different).
So a 2000 Population with barflies of 9587 (9579) or without 8583, seems
consistent with 9632 from 1980 (with or without barflies, is not known).
But it seems inconsistent with the drop in housing units.
BINGO... I just discovered where the 9587 number comes from -- it's picking
up the 1990 census data for some weird reason when you click on the
"without bar graphs" ... watch the "source" citation at the top.
And you can't switch back... definitely a case of copying boiler plate HTML
and forgetting to update a link. [I'll try to report that one...]
=====
So I think we've learned that:
A) There is a bug in the PCDC data site presentation for 1990 without bar
graphs.
B) The 16,000 population number for Spruce Hill referred to the old
University City appellation and was therefore "correct" and based
on 1980 census data.
C) Spruce Hill population numbers should be (for tracts 87,77 combined)
1990: 9587
2000: 8583
--
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William H. Magill Senior Systems Administrator
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University of Pennsylvania Internet: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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