Hi Douglas: I don't recognize the URL-specific errors you are seeing, so none of this may be relevant, but I've set up and currently use 5 different iOS devices when developing and testing (plus I've set up two older iOS devices I used 5 or 6 years ago that have since become unsupported) and yet, I find I still have to follow a strict checklist to not make a little mistake in the overly complex Apple developer portal set up process for certs/profiles/appIDs, APNs, etc.
Can you ensure/recheck the following? Your UDID registered in device list is correct (just double check there wasn't a copy/paste error). You chose the right developer team cert when generating the prov profile, and that cert is registered in your dev computer's keychain? You chose Ad Hoc profile and not Developer which is for native dev? The new iOS device is registered with your Apple ID? The device is on WiFi with good signal? The device Is an iPhone 5s or later? You're using AIR 31 (AIR 28 broke debugging, and it wasn't fixed until AIR 31) - I understand this worked on your last phone, so this may not be relevant, just covering the bases. Anyway, retracing my steps by setting it all up again has fixed similar problems for me over the years and it's quicker to do this again than searching the web and troubleshooting the hard way. Good luck!