On Sat, 30 Aug 2003 11:10:29 Jim Elwell wrote: >... >Actually, regular grocery stores have about 40,000 to 50,000 items. >"Superstores" such as Target and Walmart have 70,000 to 90,000 different >items in a store. > >>Would it also be fair to say that *even at 50% level* ther would STILL be >>'tens of thousands' of ifp products out there? > >Yep. > >>Therefore, if my math doesn't fail me and at the rate you've been >>reporting about these products (one every month or so?...) how long would >>it take till one sees these "flipped to the 'other side' >>(metric)"? Thousand(s) of years, right?... > >Yep. > >Of course, you are presuming (a) that I find all the products that have >metricated, and (b) that the rate of change to metric will be constant. >That's where we entirely disagree. I believe that it's more of a "critical >mass" type of situation, where, when we reach a significant portion of >metric products, and where US consumers no longer raise a stink when they >see it, then the bulk of the remaining non-metric products will switch much >more quickly. > A few small "problems" with your rationale above though.
Firstly, this business of "critical mass" does NOT fan out *necessarily*. See for instance the situation with DOTs where it was safe to say that at one point in time there WAS more than 50% (and here I'm assuming this would be a reasonable benchmark to fulfill what we mean here) of them on the metric side. Secondly, I honestly can't agree that *at least* some very vocal US consumers would NOT 'raise a stink' about this. And we all know that it suffices for such to occur for things to backpedal just as quickly as one can say "amen"!... What I mean is, it ALWAYS happens, and it always amazes me how effective these ifp goons are at getting things to go their way! Thirdly, we do NOT have ANY indication that the "speed of conversion" would go any faster than it has been for the last decades (or century(ies)), Jim! Therefore, I feel we're back at the point above when you agreed with me this would take "forever" to materialize, IF EVER! >My estimate is that we are in the range of 5% metric in consumer products, >probably over 30% in industrial products, and definitely over 60% in >electronics manufacturing. We've passed critical mass in electronics >manufacturing, are near it in industrial products, and have a ways to go in >consumer products. > Sorry to rain on your parade, Jim, but assuming your figures above, I take no solace in the electronic industry whatsoever. Despite what you call a critical mass having been reached I continue to be pestered by ifp products from this industry (e.g. some computer equip). There STILL are segments thereof that continue to do things the ifp way and show NO signs of advancing this figure to above its present value (60%)! I'd be more receptive to your "critical mass" argumentation if the velocity would increase even linearly, let alone exponentially, after that! But this does NOT occur necessarily. ... >I don't think this will happen to any real degree. Jim, Jim, Jim... Please don't be so naive, my friend. Suffice it to look at the DOT scenario to get a real good feel for this. > It DOES happen when >government tries to cram metric down peoples' throats. Continuing on the thought above: TEA-21 **dropped** the metric requirement, remember? What happened thereafter? Backpedaling in droves! So, don't come to me saying that when the 'gummint' lays back things can go forward! NO, on the contrary, these guys will finally have the very invaluable opportunity to seize the situation to do what they want, now unimpeded by gov's requirements! > But when metrication >is happening the way it is in the USA, i.e., by individual companies and >persons making the change in their own time and way, why would people object? > Simple, Jim, when it gets to the point that it will step on people's toes, like in "forcing them to use and think in metric", they WILL object! By golly, they will! This has never failed so far. >I will remind you that the huge Metric Martyr stink in England a couple of >years ago was due to government persecution of a peaceful citizen, not >because any citizens objected to a private institution changing to metric. > I'm not entirely convinced that this has been THE reason. Granted, it could have had some bearing on it, but it's debatable whether or not it was so. Marcus ____________________________________________________________ Get 25MB of email storage with Lycos Mail Plus! Sign up today -- http://www.mail.lycos.com/brandPage.shtml?pageId=plus
