he United States faces a major shortage of scientists
because too few Americans are entering technical fields and because
international competition is heating up for bright foreigners who once
filled the gap, a federal panel warned Tuesday.
"I fear irreversible damage can be done," Robert C. Richardson, a Nobel
laureate in physics and a member of the panel, said at a news conference
in Washington, adding that he found the personnel trends "quite
disturbing."
Warren M. Washington, chairman of the panel, the National Science
Board, said the nation was in "a long-distance race" to maintain its edge
in human scientific resources.
"For many years we have benefited from minimal competition in the
global science and engineering labor market," he said. "But attractive and
competitive alternatives are now expanding around the world."
The solution, Dr. Washington added, is for the United States to work
harder at developing its own scientific talent. But a board report shows
declining interest among young Americans in science careers.
The board, a 24-member federal advisory panel established by Congress,
released its report, "An Emerging and Critical Problem of the Science and
Engineering Labor Force," as a companion to "Science and Engineering
Indicators 2004," a detailed analysis of science trends it publishes every
two years. The National Science Foundation, a federal agency that the
board oversees, released both reports on Tuesday at its headquarters in
Arlington, Va.
The board in its report noted "a troubling decline" in the number of
Americans training to be scientists and said such trends "threaten the
economic welfare and security of our country."
The recruitment problem, the report said, grows out of the nation's
economic success and the rising demand for employees trained in science
and engineering. For decades, such jobs have grown faster than overall
employment. They went to 3.8 percent of civilian jobs from 2.6 percent
between 1983 and 2002, according to the new indicators.
Unchecked, the trends in technical employment will leave a dearth of
scientists to meet the rising demand, the board report said. At best, it
added, the number of United States citizens qualified for science and
engineering jobs could remain level.
But interest in such careers is falling compared with elsewhere. The
2004 report on indicators says the United States ranks 17th among nations
surveyed in the share of its 18-to-24-year-olds who earn natural science
and engineering degrees, behind Taiwan and South Korea, Ireland and Italy.
In 1975, it was third.
Skilled foreigners have increasingly filled the gap: the board report
shows that 38 percent of all the nation's scientists and engineers with
doctorates are now foreign born.
But that inward flow is threatened, the board said, because of new
limits on the entry of highly educated foreigners into the country and
more intense global competition for their skills. Visas granted to
students, exchange visitors and highly skilled foreigners dropped from
787,000 in 2001 to 625,000 last year. Visa applications have dropped as
well.
At the same time, other countries, especially in Europe and Asia, have
realized that science and technology are crucial to economic growth and
prosperity and are rapidly catching up to the United States in the pursuit
of science excellence. As a result, the numbers of foreigners who once
came to the United States to do science are expected to drop.
"I don't think America is getting fat and lazy," Dr. Richardson
remarked. But he added that if the nation failed to make the right
investments soon, "we're going to be left behind in a cloud of
dust."
