Posted by Orin Kerr:
The Vietnam Comparison -- A Closer Look At The Numbers:
I am not exactly comforted by [1]Jim's comparison of the number of
U.S. deaths in Iraq and the number of U.S. deaths at the height of the
Vietnam War. While the casualty rate in Vietnam is considerably higher
than the rate in Iraq, Jim's comparison led me to realize that the
differences are smaller than I would have thought.
In 2004, the U.S. lost about 75 troops per month in Iraq out of a
total force of about 130,000. When comparing this to Vietnam, you need
to specify the year of the comparison; the scope of U.S. involvement
grew gradually over a period of years. In 1966, the U.S. lost about
500 soldiers per month out of a total force that averaged about
300,000 troops; in 1967, the rate increased to about 1,000 troops per
month out of a total force of about 400,000. By 1968-69, the war's
peak, the U.S. averaged about 1,500 lives lost per month out of a
total force of about 500,000. [All numbers rounded off. Iraq casualty
stats are [2]here; Vietnam stats [3]here. Number of troops in Iraq are
[4]here, number in Vietnam are [5]here.]
Jim is quite right that the total number of U.S. deaths in Iraq so
far is about the same as the total for a bad month near the peak of
the U.S. involvement in Vietnam. But I think a more complete picture
would be that the scale of U.S. involvement in Iraq is about 25-40% of
the scale of U.S. involvement in Vietnam in the '66-'69 period, and
that the chance that a U.S. soldier in Iraq will get killed is about
25% of the chance that a U.S. solider in Vietnam in '66-'69 would get
killed.
Obviously these comparisons are extremely crude. I grabbed my
numbers from a few websites I found via Google, and eyeballed some of
the numbers from charts. More importantly, the comparison sheds no
light on how the two wars compare more broadly, or whether the
decision to invade Iraq was right or wrong. But if we look only at the
number of troops and casualty rate, the numbers are less far off than
I would have thought.
I have enabled comments. Remember the [6]new comment rule, however:
civil and respectful comments only. If you can't say it nicely, don't
say it here.
References
1. http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2004_12_21.shtml#1104094668
2. http://www.antiwar.com/casualties/
3. http://members.aol.com/warlibrary/vwc24.htm
4.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2003/11/06/number_of_troops_in_iraq_to_expand/
5. http://faculty.smu.edu/dsimon/Change-Viet2.html
6. http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2004_12_21.shtml#1103816171
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