Posted by Ilya Somin: Fighting Between Russia and Georgia: http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_08_03-2008_08_09.shtml#1218255509
[1]Large-scale fighting has broken out between Russia and Georgia. According to news reports, Georgia launched an offensive to suppress secessionist forces in the breakaway region of South Ossetia; the secessionists have long been backed by Russian troops. Russia has responded by launching a counteroffensive and bombing targets throughout Georgia. At this point, I don't have enough information about the situation to comment in any great detail. For example, it's hard to assess the validity of [2]Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili's claim that Russian airstrikes have been "specifically targeting [the] civilian population." (though sadly, it would not be a complete surprise if they were, given Russian practices in nearby Chechnya). Moreover, the backstory to this conflict is long and complex, and I doubt I have the knowledge to make more than tentative judgments about it. That said, I think it's unlikely that Russia's role here is entirely benign, given the longstanding history Russian imperialism in the region, Russia's recent aggressive policy towards its neighbors under Vladimir Putin, and Georgia's role as a recently democratized state and ally of the US that Russian leaders fear as a potential catalyst for pro-democracy movements within Russia itself. At the same time, it was probably unwise of Saakashvili to launch a large-scale offensive in South Ossetia that he should have realized could lead to war with a much more powerful state - a war that Georgia probably can't win if Russia is willing to commit enough of its forces to overwhelm the Georgians. Both of these points are, of course, tentative and could be invalidated by later revelations. The conflict has some important implications for the US. Georgia has some 2000 troops serving in the US-led coalition in Iraq (which are now likely to be withdrawn) and the fighting could disrupt strategically important oil pipelines passing through the country. The US also faces a difficult dilemma in so far as we may have to choose between backing a staunch ally and Bush's effort to improve relations with Russia (whose cooperation he needs on issues like the effort to impose sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program). On a lighter note, it's telling that, as of midnight today, [3]the CNN website is giving this important conflict a lower billing than the latest revelations about John Edwards' extramarital affair. This order of priorities is ludicrous from the standpoint of the real relative importance of these events. But it does fit [4]my theory that most people who follow political news do so primarily to get information they find interesting or entertaining rather than to learn about objectively important issues in order to become better-informed voters. A tawdry affair by a presidential candidate who dropped out of the race a long time ago is far less important than a bloody conflict with major implications for US strategic interests in a crucial part of the world (to say nothing of the lives that have been lost). But the affair may have greater entertainment value, and entertainment is what CNN must provide in order to keep up ratings and increase its revenue. References 1. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,400741,00.html 2. http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/08/georgia.ossetia/index.html 3. http://www.cnn.com/ 4. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=916963 _______________________________________________ Volokh mailing list [email protected] http://lists.powerblogs.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/volokh
