Posted by Ilya Somin:
Slavery as the Motive for Southern Secession in 1861:
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_08_10-2008_08_16.shtml#1218531359


   Some commenters on my posts on secession ([1]here and [2]here) doubt
   my claim that the southern states seceded in 1861 for the purpose of
   preserving slavery. After all, they point out, Abraham Lincoln and the
   Republicans had promised not to abolish slavery in the states where it
   existed. This is a common point advanced by those want to claim that
   slavery was not the main cause of the Civil War. Indeed, it was first
   advanced by apologists for the Confederate cause in the immediate
   aftermath of the War in order to paint the Confederacy in a more
   positive light by demonstrating that it was fighting for "states'
   rights" rather than slavery. But the claim doesn't withstand scrutiny.

   Confederate leaders repeatedly stated in 1861 that the threat
   Lincoln's election posed to slavery was the main reason for secession.
   In January 1861, soon-to-be Confederate President Jefferson Davis
   [3]said that his state had seceded because "She has heard proclaimed
   the theory that all men are created free and equal, and this made the
   basis of an attack upon her social institutions; and the sacred
   Declaration of Independence has been invoked to maintain the position
   of the equality of the races." Davis was referring to well-known
   speeches by Lincoln and other Republicans citing the Declaration in
   criticism of slavery. Confederate Vice President Alexander Stephens
   similarly said that [4]"slavery . . . was the immediate cause of the
   late rupture and present revolution" and that protecting it was the
   "cornerstone" of the new Confederate government. Many other
   Confederate leaders made similar statements.

   Why did Lincoln's election cause them to fear for the future of
   slavery? It is true that the Republicans did not plan to abolish
   slavery in the near future. But white southerners still saw Lincoln's
   election on an antislavery platform as a serious threat to the
   "peculiar institution." Whatever their position on slavery where it
   already existed, the Republicans were firm in their commitment to
   preventing its spread to the vast new territories acquired by the US
   in the Mexican War. That, in fact, was the main point of the
   Republican platform. Slaveowners believed that an end to the expansion
   of slavery threatened their economic interests. In addition, the
   creation of numerous new free states without the admission of any new
   countervailing slave states would erode slaveowners' influence in
   congressional and presidential elections and potentially pave the way
   for abolition in the future.

   Perhaps even more important, most white southerners didn't trust
   Lincoln's assurances that he wouldn't move against slavery in the
   South. After all, this was the same man who had famously said that
   [5]"this government cannot endure permanently half slave and half
   free," and that "the opponents of slavery" should "arrest the further
   spread of it, and place it where the public mind shall rest in the
   belief that it is in the course of ultimate extinction." He meant that
   blocking the expansion of slavery would eventually put pressure on
   southern states to abolish it "voluntarily." But slaveowners suspected
   that he and other Republicans would attack the Peculiar Institution
   directly if they got the chance. Within the Republican Party, Lincoln
   was a relative moderate. More radical Republicans wanted stronger,
   more immediate action against slavery. And their influence within the
   party might grow over time.

   Finally, slaveowners feared that Lincoln's election would undermine
   slavery in border states such as Maryland, Missouri, Kentucky,
   Tennessee and even Virginia, which already had many fewer slaves than
   the Deep South. By using patronage to promote the growth of Republican
   parties in these states and relaxing enforcement of the Fugitive Slave
   Act, a Republican-controlled federal government could eventually force
   these states to abolish slavery. If they could turn the border states
   into free states and do the same with all the new states to be
   established in the West, the Republicans could create a large enough
   majority of free states to enact a constitutional amendment banning
   slavery throughout the country.

   It was to head off these various threats to slavery that the southern
   states chose to secede in 1861. For documentation of all these points,
   including quotes from Confederate leaders, see historian William
   Freehling's excellent book, [6]The South vs. the South.

   Ultimately, slavery would probably have lasted longer if the South
   hadn't seceded in 1861. The Confederates clearly underestimated the
   North's will to fight (just as northerners underestimated that of the
   Confederates). Nonetheless, they did have reason to see Lincoln's
   election as a serious longterm threat to slavery. And that fear
   underlay the decision to secede.

References

   1. http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_07_20-2008_07_26.shtml#1216947115
   2. http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_08_10-2008_08_16.shtml#1218431110
   3. http://members.aol.com/jfepperson/davisexit.html
   4. http://www.teachingamericanhistory.org/library/index.asp?document=76
   5. http://www.answers.com/topic/lincoln-s-house-divided-speech
   6. 
http://www.amazon.com/South-Vs-Anti-Confederate-Southerners-Shaped/dp/0195156293

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